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DOI | 10.1038/s41586-018-0871-y |
Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions | |
Proctor, Jonathan1,2; Hsiang, Solomon3; Burney, Jennifer4; Burke, Marshall3,5; Schlenker, Wolfram3,6 | |
2019-01-30 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE |
ISSN | 0028-0836 |
EISSN | 1476-4687 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 560期号:7719页码:480-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures(1,2), yet the economic effects of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown(3). Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress(4), the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight affected global crop yields. We find that the sunlight-mediated effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice and wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a solar radiation management scenario based on stratospheric sulfate aerosols, we find that projected mid-twenty-first century damages due to scattering sunlight caused by solar radiation management are roughly equal in magnitude to benefits from cooling. This suggests that solar radiation management-if deployed using stratospheric sulfate aerosols similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic-would, on net, attenuate little of the global agricultural damage from climate change. Our approach could be extended to study the effects of solar radiation management on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442483400040 |
WOS关键词 | MOUNT-PINATUBO ERUPTION ; CLIMATE ; AEROSOLS ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/203020 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Berkeley, Goldman Sch Publ Policy, Global Policy Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 2.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 3.Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 4.Univ Calif San Diego, Sch Global Policy & Strategy, San Diego, CA 92103 USA; 5.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 6.Columbia Univ, Sch Int & Publ Affairs, New York, NY USA; 7.Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, New York, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Proctor, Jonathan,Hsiang, Solomon,Burney, Jennifer,et al. Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions[J]. NATURE,2019,560(7719):480-+. |
APA | Proctor, Jonathan,Hsiang, Solomon,Burney, Jennifer,Burke, Marshall,&Schlenker, Wolfram.(2019).Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions.NATURE,560(7719),480-+. |
MLA | Proctor, Jonathan,et al."Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions".NATURE 560.7719(2019):480-+. |
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