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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0219.1 |
Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) | |
Wang, Fuyao1; Yu, Yan1; Notaro, Michael1; Mao, Jiafu2,3; Shi, Xiaoying2,3; Wei, Yaxing2,3 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:21 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled control run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area- averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Nino modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwiseGEFAis validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414646000006 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ASSESSING ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE ; SAHEL RAINFALL ; PART I ; CROSS-VALIDATION ; SST ANOMALIES ; EAST-AFRICA ; TIME SCALES ; ENSO ; ATLANTIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20294 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Wisconsin, Nelson Inst Ctr Climat Res, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 2.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA; 3.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Fuyao,Yu, Yan,Notaro, Michael,et al. Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(21). |
APA | Wang, Fuyao,Yu, Yan,Notaro, Michael,Mao, Jiafu,Shi, Xiaoying,&Wei, Yaxing.(2017).Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM).JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(21). |
MLA | Wang, Fuyao,et al."Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.21(2017). |
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