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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0285.1 |
On the Challenge for ENSO Cycle Prediction: An Example from NCEP Climate Forecast System, Version 2 | |
Hu, Zeng-Zhen1; Kumar, Arun1; Zhu, Jieshun1,2; Peng, Peitao1; Huang, Bohua3,4 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:1页码:183-194 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This work demonstrates the influence of the initial amplitude of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) following its evolutionary phase on the forecast skill of ENSO in retrospective predictions of the Climate Forecast System, version 2. It is noted that the prediction skill varies with the phase of the ENSO cycle. The averaged skill (linear correlation) of Nino-3.4 index is in a range of 0.15-0.55 for the amplitude of Nino-3.4 index smaller than 0.5 degrees C (e.g., initial phase or neutral condition of ENSO), and 0.74-0.93 for the amplitude larger than 0.5 degrees C (e.g., mature condition of ENSO) for 0-6-month lead predictions. The dependence of the prediction skills of ENSO on its phase is linked to the variation of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). This variation is found to be mainly due to the changes in the amplitude of the signal (prediction of the ensemble mean) during different phases of the ENSO cycle, as the noise (forecast spread among the ensemble members), both in the Nino-3.4 region and the whole Pacific, does not depend much on the Nino-3.4 amplitude. It is also shown that the spatial pattern of unpredictable noise in the Pacific is similar to the predictable signal. These results imply that skillful prediction of the ENSO cycle, either at the initial time of an event or during the transition phase of the ENSO cycle, when the anomaly signal is weak and the SNR is small, is an inherent challenge. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere-ocean interaction Climate prediction ENSO Ensembles Seasonal forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452473700003 |
WOS关键词 | EL-NINO ; COUPLED MODEL ; LA-NINA ; SKILL ; PREDICTABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; PATTERNS ; MONSOON ; OCEAN |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20276 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, NCEP, NWS, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 2.Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 3.George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 4.George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hu, Zeng-Zhen,Kumar, Arun,Zhu, Jieshun,et al. On the Challenge for ENSO Cycle Prediction: An Example from NCEP Climate Forecast System, Version 2[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(1):183-194. |
APA | Hu, Zeng-Zhen,Kumar, Arun,Zhu, Jieshun,Peng, Peitao,&Huang, Bohua.(2019).On the Challenge for ENSO Cycle Prediction: An Example from NCEP Climate Forecast System, Version 2.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(1),183-194. |
MLA | Hu, Zeng-Zhen,et al."On the Challenge for ENSO Cycle Prediction: An Example from NCEP Climate Forecast System, Version 2".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.1(2019):183-194. |
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