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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0589.1 |
Was the Cold European Winter of 2009/10 Modified by Anthropogenic Climate Change? An Attribution Study | |
Christiansen, Bo1; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen2; Christidis, Nikolaos3; Ciavarella, Andrew3; Colfescu, Ioana4; Cowan, Tim5; Eden, Jonathan6; Hauser, Mathias7; Hempelmann, Nils2; Klehmet, Katharina8; Lott, Fraser3; Nangini, Cathy2; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan6; Orth, Rene7; Stott, Peter3; Tett, Simon5; Vautard, Robert2; Wilcox, Laura9; Yiou, Pascal2 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:9页码:3387-3410 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Denmark; France; England; Scotland; Netherlands; Switzerland; Germany |
英文摘要 | An attribution study has been performed to investigate the degree to which the unusually cold European winter of 2009/10 was modified by anthropogenic climate change. Two different methods have been included for the attribution: one based on large HadGEM3-A ensembles and one based on a statistical surrogate method. Both methods are evaluated by comparing simulated winter temperature means, trends, standard deviations, skewness, return periods, and 5% quantiles with observations. While the surrogate method performs well, HadGEM3-A in general underestimates the trend in winter by a factor of (2)/3. It has a mean cold bias dominated by the mountainous regions and also underestimates the cold 5% quantile in many regions of Europe. Both methods show that the probability of experiencing a winter as cold as 2009/10 has been reduced by approximately a factor of 2 because of anthropogenic changes. The method based on HadGEM3-A ensembles gives somewhat larger changes than the surrogate method because of differences in the definition of the unperturbed climate. The results are based on two diagnostics: the coldest day in winter and the largest continuous area with temperatures colder than twice the local standard deviation. The results are not sensitive to the choice of bias correction except in the mountainous regions. Previous results regarding the behavior of the measures of the changed probability have been extended. The counterintuitive behavior for heavy-tailed distributions is found to hold for a range of measures and for events that become more rare in a changed climate. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429529900003 |
WOS关键词 | ARCTIC SEA-ICE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; WEATHER EVENTS ; TIME-SERIES ; TEMPERATURE ; EXTREMES ; ANOMALIES ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20252 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark; 2.Univ Paris Saclay, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 4.Univ Leeds, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 5.Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 6.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; 7.ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 8.Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany; 9.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christiansen, Bo,Alvarez-Castro, Carmen,Christidis, Nikolaos,et al. Was the Cold European Winter of 2009/10 Modified by Anthropogenic Climate Change? An Attribution Study[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(9):3387-3410. |
APA | Christiansen, Bo.,Alvarez-Castro, Carmen.,Christidis, Nikolaos.,Ciavarella, Andrew.,Colfescu, Ioana.,...&Yiou, Pascal.(2018).Was the Cold European Winter of 2009/10 Modified by Anthropogenic Climate Change? An Attribution Study.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(9),3387-3410. |
MLA | Christiansen, Bo,et al."Was the Cold European Winter of 2009/10 Modified by Anthropogenic Climate Change? An Attribution Study".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.9(2018):3387-3410. |
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