GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0878.1
Short Warm-Side Temperature Distribution Tails Drive Hot Spots of Warm Temperature Extreme Increases under Near-Future Warming
Loikith, Paul C.1; Neelin, J. David2; Meyerson, Joyce2; Hunter, Jacob S.3
2018-12-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:23页码:9469-9487
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm-side temperature anomaly distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in global reanalysis. Under such conditions, future warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances relative to a fixed threshold compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. The associated societal and environmental impacts make realistic representation of these short tails an important target for climate models. Global evaluation of the ability for a suite of global climate models (GCMs) contributing to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests that most models approximately capture the principal observed coherent regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model simulations of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid future increases in exceedances of the historical 95th percentile in regions exhibiting short tails in the historical climate. These regions, where the ratio of exceedances projected by the GCM compared to that expected from a Gaussian sometimes exceeds 1.5, are termed hot spots. Prominent hot spots include western North America, Central America, a broad swath of northwestern Eurasia, and the Indochina Peninsula during boreal winter. During boreal summer, central and western Australia, parts of southern Africa, and portions of central South America are major hot spots.


英文关键词Extreme events Climate change Climate models
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000449262500003
WOS关键词NORTH-AMERICA ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HEAT WAVES ; NON-GAUSSIANITY ; MODEL ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; STATISTICS ; EUROPE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20238
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Portland State Univ, Dept Geog, Portland, OR 97207 USA;
2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA;
3.Portland State Univ, Dept Syst Sci, Portland, OR 97207 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Loikith, Paul C.,Neelin, J. David,Meyerson, Joyce,et al. Short Warm-Side Temperature Distribution Tails Drive Hot Spots of Warm Temperature Extreme Increases under Near-Future Warming[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(23):9469-9487.
APA Loikith, Paul C.,Neelin, J. David,Meyerson, Joyce,&Hunter, Jacob S..(2018).Short Warm-Side Temperature Distribution Tails Drive Hot Spots of Warm Temperature Extreme Increases under Near-Future Warming.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(23),9469-9487.
MLA Loikith, Paul C.,et al."Short Warm-Side Temperature Distribution Tails Drive Hot Spots of Warm Temperature Extreme Increases under Near-Future Warming".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.23(2018):9469-9487.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Loikith, Paul C.]的文章
[Neelin, J. David]的文章
[Meyerson, Joyce]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Loikith, Paul C.]的文章
[Neelin, J. David]的文章
[Meyerson, Joyce]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Loikith, Paul C.]的文章
[Neelin, J. David]的文章
[Meyerson, Joyce]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。