Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0294.1 |
Influence of the Ocean and Greenhouse Gases on Severe Drought Likelihood in the Central United States in 2012 | |
Rupp, David E.1; Li, Sihan1; Mote, Philip W.1; Massey, Neil2; Sparrow, Sarah N.3; Wallom, David C. H.3 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | The impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the likelihood of extreme drought occurring in the central United States in the year 2012 were investigated using large-ensemble simulations from a global atmospheric climate model. Two sets of experiments were conducted. In the first, the simulated hydroclimate of 2012 was compared to a baseline period (1986-2014) to investigate the impact of SSTs. In the second, the hydroclimate in a world with 2012-level anthropogenic forcing was compared to five `` counterfactual'' versions of a 2012 world under preindustrial forcing. SST anomalies in 2012 increased the simulated likelihood of an extreme summer precipitation deficit (e. g., the deficit with a 2% exceedance probability) by a factor of 5. The likelihood of an extreme summer soil moisture deficit increased by a similar amount, due in great part to a large spring soil moisture deficit carrying over into summer. An anthropogenic impact on precipitation was detectable in the simulations, doubling the likelihood of what would have been a rainfall deficit with a 2% exceedance probability under preindustrial-level forcings. Despite this reduction in rainfall, summer soil moisture during extreme drought was essentially unaffected by anthropogenic forcing because of 1) evapotranspiration declining roughly one-to-one with a decrease in precipitation due to severe water supply constraint and despite higher evaporative demand and 2) a decrease in stomatal conductance, and therefore a decrease in potential transpiration, with higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395539100015 |
WOS关键词 | AEROSOL-CLOUD INTERACTIONS ; CLIMATE MODEL ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; CMIP5 ; HEAT ; SST ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; SIMULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20232 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Oregon State Univ, Coll Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Oregon Climate Change Res Inst, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA; 2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England; 3.Univ Oxford, Oxford E Res Ctr, Oxford, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rupp, David E.,Li, Sihan,Mote, Philip W.,et al. Influence of the Ocean and Greenhouse Gases on Severe Drought Likelihood in the Central United States in 2012[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(5). |
APA | Rupp, David E.,Li, Sihan,Mote, Philip W.,Massey, Neil,Sparrow, Sarah N.,&Wallom, David C. H..(2017).Influence of the Ocean and Greenhouse Gases on Severe Drought Likelihood in the Central United States in 2012.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(5). |
MLA | Rupp, David E.,et al."Influence of the Ocean and Greenhouse Gases on Severe Drought Likelihood in the Central United States in 2012".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.5(2017). |
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