Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0225.1 |
Reducing Model Structural Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections-A Rank-Based Model Combination Approach | |
Das Bhowmik, R.1; Sharma, A.2; Sankarasubramanian, A.1 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:24 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Australia |
英文摘要 | Future changes in monthly precipitation are typically evaluated by estimating the shift in the long-term mean/variability or based on the change in the marginal distribution. General circulation model (GCM) precipitation projections deviate across various models and emission scenarios and hence provide no consensus on the expected future change. The current study proposes a rank/percentile-based multimodel combination approach to account for the fact that alternate model projections do not share a common time indexing. The approach is evaluated using 10 GCM historical runs for the current period and is validated by comparing with two approaches: equal weighting and a non-percentile-based optimal weighting. The percentile-based optimal combination exhibits lower values of RMSE in estimating precipitation terciles. Future (2000-49) multimodel projections show that January and July precipitation exhibit an increase in simulated monthly extremes (25th and 75th percentiles) over many climate regions of the conterminous United States. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423492500020 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATIONS ; EXTREMES ; STATES ; PERSISTENCE ; PREDICTION ; ENSEMBLES ; FORECASTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20217 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.North Carolina State Univ, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA; 2.Univ New South Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Das Bhowmik, R.,Sharma, A.,Sankarasubramanian, A.. Reducing Model Structural Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections-A Rank-Based Model Combination Approach[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(24). |
APA | Das Bhowmik, R.,Sharma, A.,&Sankarasubramanian, A..(2017).Reducing Model Structural Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections-A Rank-Based Model Combination Approach.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(24). |
MLA | Das Bhowmik, R.,et al."Reducing Model Structural Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections-A Rank-Based Model Combination Approach".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.24(2017). |
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