GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0101.1
Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Onskog, Thomas1; Franzke, Christian L. E.2,3; Hannachi, Abdel4
2018
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:2页码:537-554
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Sweden; Germany
英文摘要

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin and has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions. It is the result of complex and nonlinear interactions between many spatiotemporal scales. Here, the authors study the statistical properties of two time series of the daily NAO index. Previous NAO modeling attempts only considered Gaussian noise, which can be inconsistent with the system complexity. Here, it is found that an autoregressive model with non-Gaussian noise provides a better fit to the time series. This result holds also when considering time series for the four seasons separately. The usefulness of the proposed model is evaluated by means of an investigation of its forecast skill.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000425164800004
WOS关键词LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE ; HEMISPHERE WINTER ; CIRCULATION ; SKEWNESS ; MODELS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20167
专题气候变化
作者单位1.KTH Royal Inst Technol, Dept Math, Stockholm, Sweden;
2.Univ Hamburg, Meteorol Inst, Hamburg, Germany;
3.Univ Hamburg, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil, Hamburg, Germany;
4.Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden
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GB/T 7714
Onskog, Thomas,Franzke, Christian L. E.,Hannachi, Abdel. Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(2):537-554.
APA Onskog, Thomas,Franzke, Christian L. E.,&Hannachi, Abdel.(2018).Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(2),537-554.
MLA Onskog, Thomas,et al."Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.2(2018):537-554.
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