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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0101.1 |
Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation | |
Onskog, Thomas1; Franzke, Christian L. E.2,3; Hannachi, Abdel4 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:2页码:537-554 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Sweden; Germany |
英文摘要 | The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin and has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions. It is the result of complex and nonlinear interactions between many spatiotemporal scales. Here, the authors study the statistical properties of two time series of the daily NAO index. Previous NAO modeling attempts only considered Gaussian noise, which can be inconsistent with the system complexity. Here, it is found that an autoregressive model with non-Gaussian noise provides a better fit to the time series. This result holds also when considering time series for the four seasons separately. The usefulness of the proposed model is evaluated by means of an investigation of its forecast skill. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425164800004 |
WOS关键词 | LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE ; HEMISPHERE WINTER ; CIRCULATION ; SKEWNESS ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20167 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.KTH Royal Inst Technol, Dept Math, Stockholm, Sweden; 2.Univ Hamburg, Meteorol Inst, Hamburg, Germany; 3.Univ Hamburg, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil, Hamburg, Germany; 4.Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Onskog, Thomas,Franzke, Christian L. E.,Hannachi, Abdel. Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(2):537-554. |
APA | Onskog, Thomas,Franzke, Christian L. E.,&Hannachi, Abdel.(2018).Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(2),537-554. |
MLA | Onskog, Thomas,et al."Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.2(2018):537-554. |
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