Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1 |
Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent | |
Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C.1,2; Zwiers, Francis W.1; Gillett, Nathan P.3 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
![]() |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased over recent decades, with record-setting minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012. A question of interest across many disciplines concerns the extent to which such extreme events can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. First, a detection and attribution analysis is performed for trends in SIE anomalies over the observed period. The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE. Although focus is placed on the 2012 event, the results are generalized to extreme events of other magnitudes, including both past and potential future extremes. Several ensembles of model responses are used, including two single-model large ensembles. Using several different metrics to define the events in question, it is shown that an extreme SIE minimum of the magnitude seen in 2012 is consistent with a scenario including anthropogenic influence and is extremely unlikely in a scenario excluding anthropogenic influence. Hence, the 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum provides a counter example to the often-quoted idea that individual extreme events cannot be attributed to human influence. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000391856300008 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE-CHANGE ; PART I ; VARIABILITY ; PROJECTIONS ; WEATHER ; MODELS ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20066 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; 2.Univ Victoria, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada; 3.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C.,Zwiers, Francis W.,Gillett, Nathan P.. Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(2). |
APA | Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C.,Zwiers, Francis W.,&Gillett, Nathan P..(2017).Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(2). |
MLA | Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C.,et al."Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.2(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论