Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0145.1 |
Role of Equatorial Pacific SST Forecast Error in the Late Winter California Precipitation Forecast for the 2015/16 El Nino | |
Jong, Bor-Ting1,2; Ting, Mingfang2; Seager, Richard2; Henderson, Naomi2; Lee, Dong Eun2 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:2页码:839-852 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | During the strong 2015/16 El Nino, only normal to below-average precipitation fell across California in the late winter. This disagrees with both predictions by the ensemble mean of forecast models and expectations for strong El Ninos. The authors examine one of the possible reasons why this event did not bring expected precipitation to California in the late winter. The maximum equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) were located, compared to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 strong El Ninos, farther to the west in the 2015/16 winter, which possibly caused less convection in the eastern tropical Pacific and shifted the teleconnection patterns westward in the North Pacific, thus weakening the influences on California. The SSTA and precipitation forecast for February-April 2016, based on the North American Multimodel Ensemble, showed large discrepancies from observations, with the ensemble mean of most of the models overestimating SSTAs in the eastern tropical Pacific and California precipitation. Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that the warmer eastern tropical Pacific SSTA forecast may have caused the wetter forecast in California in 2015/16 compared to observations. The AGCMexperiments suggest it is difficult to assert that the eastern tropical Pacific SSTAs caused the too-wet California precipitation forecast, especially in Southern California, given that the models disagree. Results indicate forecast error can be influenced by atmosphere-model sensitivity to forecast SSTs, but they also indicate atmospheric internal variability may have been responsible for the combination of a strong El Nino and near-normal California precipitation. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425164800020 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; ANOMALIES ; ENSO ; TEMPERATURE ; PATTERNS ; RAINFALL ; TELECONNECTIONS ; PREDICTION ; INTENSITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20047 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Palisades, NY 10027 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Geol Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jong, Bor-Ting,Ting, Mingfang,Seager, Richard,et al. Role of Equatorial Pacific SST Forecast Error in the Late Winter California Precipitation Forecast for the 2015/16 El Nino[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(2):839-852. |
APA | Jong, Bor-Ting,Ting, Mingfang,Seager, Richard,Henderson, Naomi,&Lee, Dong Eun.(2018).Role of Equatorial Pacific SST Forecast Error in the Late Winter California Precipitation Forecast for the 2015/16 El Nino.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(2),839-852. |
MLA | Jong, Bor-Ting,et al."Role of Equatorial Pacific SST Forecast Error in the Late Winter California Precipitation Forecast for the 2015/16 El Nino".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.2(2018):839-852. |
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