Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0521.1 |
Toward Predicting Changes in the Land Monsoon Rainfall a Decade in Advance | |
Wang, Bin1,2,3; Li, Juan1,2,3; Cane, Mark A.4; Liu, Jian5,6; Webster, Peter J.7; Xiang, Baoqiang8,9; Kim, Hye-Mi10; Cao, Jian1,2,3; Ha, Kyung-Ja9,11,12 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:7页码:2699-2714 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China; South Korea |
英文摘要 | Predictions of changes of the land monsoon rainfall (LMR) in the coming decades are of vital importance for successful sustainable economic development. Current dynamic models, though, have shown little skill in the decadal prediction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) LMR(NHLMR). The physical basis and predictability for such predictions remain largely unexplored. Decadal change of the NHLMR reflects changes in the total NH continental precipitation, tropical general circulation, and regional land monsoon rainfall over northern Africa, India, East Asia, and North America. Using observations from 1901 to 2014 and numerical experiments, it is shown that the decadal variability of the NHLMR is rooted primarily in (i) the north-south hemispheric thermal contrast in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector measured by the North Atlantic-south Indian Ocean dipole (NAID) sea surface temperature (SST) index and (ii) an east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific measured by an extended El Nino-Southern Oscillation (XEN) index. Results from a 500-yr preindustrial control experiment demonstrate that the leading mode of decadal NHLMR and the associated NAID and XEN SST anomalies may be largely an internal mode of Earth's climate system, although possibly modified by natural and anthropogenic external forcing. A 51-yr, independent forward-rolling decadal hindcast was made with a hybrid dynamic conceptual model and using the NAID index predicted by a multiclimate model ensemble. The results demonstrate that the decadal changes in the NHLMR can be predicted approximately a decade in advance with significant skills, opening a promising way forward for decadal predictions of regional land monsoon rainfall worldwide. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429456500009 |
WOS关键词 | ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION ; GLOBAL MONSOON ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; SUMMER MONSOON ; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; PRECIPITATION ; REANALYSIS ; PACIFIC ; CMIP5 ; PERFORMANCE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20041 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 2.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Earth Syst Modeling Ctr, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 4.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 5.Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Key Lab Virtual Geog Environm, Minist Educ, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 6.Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Jiangsu Prov State Key Lab Cultivat Base Geog Env, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 7.Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Earth & Atmospher Sci, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA; 8.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA; 9.Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO USA; 10.SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA; 11.Pusan Natl Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Busan, South Korea; 12.Inst Basic Sci, Ctr Climate Phys, Busan, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Bin,Li, Juan,Cane, Mark A.,et al. Toward Predicting Changes in the Land Monsoon Rainfall a Decade in Advance[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(7):2699-2714. |
APA | Wang, Bin.,Li, Juan.,Cane, Mark A..,Liu, Jian.,Webster, Peter J..,...&Ha, Kyung-Ja.(2018).Toward Predicting Changes in the Land Monsoon Rainfall a Decade in Advance.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(7),2699-2714. |
MLA | Wang, Bin,et al."Toward Predicting Changes in the Land Monsoon Rainfall a Decade in Advance".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.7(2018):2699-2714. |
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