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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0811.1 |
Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections | |
Yoo, Changhyun1; Johnson, Nathaniel C.2; Chang, Chueh-Hsin3; Feldstein, Steven B.4; Kim, Young-Ha5 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:22页码:9351-9366 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; USA; Taiwan |
英文摘要 | A composite-based statistical model utilizing Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns is developed to predict East Asian wintertime surface air temperature for lead times out to 6 weeks. The level of prediction is determined by using the Heidke skill score. The prediction skill of the statistical model is compared with that of hindcast simulations by a climate model, Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5. When employed individually, three teleconnections (i.e., the east Atlantic/western Russian, Scandinavian, and polar/Eurasian teleconnection patterns) are found to provide skillful predictions for lead times beyond 4-5 weeks. When information from the teleconnections and the long-term linear trend are combined, the statistical model outperforms the climate model for lead times beyond 3 weeks, especially during those times when the teleconnections are in their active phases. |
英文关键词 | Teleconnections Statistical forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000448736500001 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; CIRCULATION ANOMALIES ; NORTH ; MECHANISMS ; MJO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20031 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ewha Womans Univ, Dept Climate & Energy Syst Engn, Seoul, South Korea; 2.Princeton Univ, Cooperat Inst Climate Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 3.Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Taipei, Taiwan; 4.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 5.Ewha Womans Univ, Severe Storm Res Ctr, Seoul, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yoo, Changhyun,Johnson, Nathaniel C.,Chang, Chueh-Hsin,et al. Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(22):9351-9366. |
APA | Yoo, Changhyun,Johnson, Nathaniel C.,Chang, Chueh-Hsin,Feldstein, Steven B.,&Kim, Young-Ha.(2018).Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(22),9351-9366. |
MLA | Yoo, Changhyun,et al."Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.22(2018):9351-9366. |
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