GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0182.1
Contributions of the North Pacific Meridional Mode to Ensemble Spread of ENSO Prediction
Ma, Jing1,2; Xie, Shang-Ping2,3,4; Xu, Haiming1
2017-11-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:22
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; USA
英文摘要

Seasonal prediction of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) employs the ensemble method, which samples the uncertainty in initial conditions. While much attention has been given to the ensemble mean, the ensemble spread limits the reliability of the forecast. Spatiotemporal coevolution of intermember anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) and low-level winds over the Pacific is examined in ensemble hindcasts. Two types of evolution of intermember SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are identified. The first features an apparent southwestward propagation of the SST spread from the subtropical northeastern Pacific southeast of Hawaii to the central equatorial Pacific in boreal winter-spring, indicative of the precursor effect of the North Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) on ENSO variability. Extratropical atmospheric variability generates ensemble spread in ENSO through wind-evaporation-SST (WES) in the subtropical northeastern Pacific and then Bjerknes feedback on the equator. In the second type, ensemble spread grows in the equatorial Pacific with a weak contribution from the subtropical southeastern Pacific in summer. Thus, the extratropical influence on ENSO evolution is much stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The growth of Nino-4 SST ensemble spread shows a strong seasonality. In hindcasts initialized in September-March, the Nino-4 SST spread grows rapidly in January-April, stabilizes in May-June, and grows again in July-September. The rapid growth of the Nino-4 SST spread in January-April is due to the arrival of NPMM, while the slowdown in May-June and rapid growth in July-September are attributable primarily to the seasonality of equatorial ocean-atmosphere interaction. NPMM contributes to the ensemble spread in equatorial Pacific SST, limiting the reliability of ENSO prediction.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000416488200018
WOS关键词SEASONAL FOOTPRINTING MECHANISM ; SINGULAR VECTOR ANALYSIS ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN MODEL ; EL-NINO ; COUPLED MODEL ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; OPTIMAL-GROWTH ; SOUTH-PACIFIC ; DECADAL VARIABILITY
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19915
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
2.Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA;
3.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab CIMST, Qingdao, Peoples R China;
4.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Ma, Jing,Xie, Shang-Ping,Xu, Haiming. Contributions of the North Pacific Meridional Mode to Ensemble Spread of ENSO Prediction[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(22).
APA Ma, Jing,Xie, Shang-Ping,&Xu, Haiming.(2017).Contributions of the North Pacific Meridional Mode to Ensemble Spread of ENSO Prediction.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(22).
MLA Ma, Jing,et al."Contributions of the North Pacific Meridional Mode to Ensemble Spread of ENSO Prediction".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.22(2017).
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