Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0182.1 |
How Wet and Dry Spells Evolve across the Conterminous United States Based on 555 Years of Paleoclimate Data | |
Ho, Michelle1,2; Lall, Upmanu2,3; Cook, Edward R.4 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:16页码:6633-6647 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; USA |
英文摘要 | Evolving patterns of droughts and wet spells in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined over 555 years using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate reconstruction of the modified Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). A hidden Markov model is used as an unsupervised method of classifying climate states and quantifying the temporal evolution from one state to another. Modeling temporal variability in spatial patterns of drought and wet spells provides the ability to objectively assess and simulate historical persistence and recurrence of similar patterns. The Viterbi algorithm reveals the probable sequence of states through time, enabling an examination of temporal and spatial features and associated large-scale climate forcing. Distinct patterns of sea surface temperature that are known to enhance or inhibit rainfall are associated with some states. Using the current CONUS PDSI field the model can be used to simulate the space-time PDSI pattern over the next few years, or unconditional simulations can be used to derive estimates of spatially concurrent PDSI patterns and their persistence and intensity across the CONUS. |
英文关键词 | Drought Pattern detection Hindcasts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439094900003 |
WOS关键词 | HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL ; DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX ; SYNOPTIC ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS ; NORTH-AMERICAN DROUGHT ; LONG-TERM PERSISTENCE ; RAINFALL TIME-SERIES ; US DROUGHT ; 20TH-CENTURY DROUGHT ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; STOCHASTIC-MODELS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19906 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 2.Columbia Univ, Columbia Water Ctr, New York, NY 10027 USA; 3.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Engn, New York, NY USA; 4.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ho, Michelle,Lall, Upmanu,Cook, Edward R.. How Wet and Dry Spells Evolve across the Conterminous United States Based on 555 Years of Paleoclimate Data[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(16):6633-6647. |
APA | Ho, Michelle,Lall, Upmanu,&Cook, Edward R..(2018).How Wet and Dry Spells Evolve across the Conterminous United States Based on 555 Years of Paleoclimate Data.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(16),6633-6647. |
MLA | Ho, Michelle,et al."How Wet and Dry Spells Evolve across the Conterminous United States Based on 555 Years of Paleoclimate Data".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.16(2018):6633-6647. |
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