Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0316.1 |
A Mechanistically Credible, Poleward Shift in Warm-Season Precipitation Projected for the US Southern Great Plains? | |
Bukovsky, Melissa S.1; McCrary, Rachel R.1; Seth, Anji2; Mearns, Linda O.1 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:20 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Global and regional climate model ensembles project that the annual cycle of rainfall over the southern Great Plains (SGP) will amplify by midcentury. Models indicate that warm-season precipitation will increase during the early spring wet season but shift north earlier in the season, intensifying late summer drying. Regional climate models (RCMs) project larger precipitation changes than their global climate model (GCM) counterparts. This is particularly true during the dry season. The credibility of the RCM projections is established by exploring the larger-scale dynamical and local land-atmosphere feedback processes that drive future changes in the simulations, that is, the responsible mechanisms or processes. In this case, it is found that out of 12 RCM simulations produced for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), the majority are mechanistically credible and consistent in the mean changes they are producing in the SGP. Both larger-scale dynamical processes and local land-atmosphere feedbacks drive an earlier end to the spring wet period and deepening of the summer dry season in the SGP. The midlatitude upper-level jet shifts northward, the monsoon anticyclone expands, and the Great Plains low-level jet increases in strength, all supporting a poleward shift in precipitation in the future. This dynamically forced shift causes land-atmosphere coupling to strengthen earlier in the summer, which in turn leads to earlier evaporation of soil moisture in the summer, resulting in extreme drying later in the summer. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411438000014 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; SUMMER RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; LOW-LEVEL JET ; SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ; PART I ; GLOBAL CLIMATE ; BOUNDARY-LAYER ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; COUPLED MODEL ; UNITED-STATES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19886 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Univ Connecticut, Storrs, CT USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bukovsky, Melissa S.,McCrary, Rachel R.,Seth, Anji,et al. A Mechanistically Credible, Poleward Shift in Warm-Season Precipitation Projected for the US Southern Great Plains?[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(20). |
APA | Bukovsky, Melissa S.,McCrary, Rachel R.,Seth, Anji,&Mearns, Linda O..(2017).A Mechanistically Credible, Poleward Shift in Warm-Season Precipitation Projected for the US Southern Great Plains?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(20). |
MLA | Bukovsky, Melissa S.,et al."A Mechanistically Credible, Poleward Shift in Warm-Season Precipitation Projected for the US Southern Great Plains?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.20(2017). |
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