Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0752.1 |
Revising Return Periods for Record Events in a Climate Event Attribution Context | |
Naveau, Philippe1; Ribes, Aurelien1,2; Zwiers, Francis1,3; Hannart, Alexis1,4; Tuel, Alexandre1,5; Yiou, Pascal1 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
![]() |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:9页码:3411-3422 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; Canada |
英文摘要 | Both climate and statistical models play an essential role in the process of demonstrating that the distribution of some atmospheric variable has changed over time and in establishing the most likely causes for the detected change. One statistical difficulty in the research field of detection and attribution resides in defining events that can be easily compared and accurately inferred from reasonable sample sizes. As many impacts studies focus on extreme events, the inference of small probabilities and the computation of their associated uncertainties quickly become challenging. In the particular context of event attribution, the authors address the question of how to compare records between the counterfactual "world as it might have been'' without anthropogenic forcings and the factual "world that is.'' Records are often the most important events in terms of impact and get much media attention. The authors will show how to efficiently estimate the ratio of two small probabilities of records. The inferential gain is particularly substantial when a simple hypothesis-testing procedure is implemented. The theoretical justification of such a proposed scheme can be found in extreme value theory. To illustrate this study's approach, classical indicators in event attribution studies, like the risk ratio or the fraction of attributable risk, are modified and tailored to handle records. The authors illustrate the advantages of their method through theoretical results, simulation studies, temperature records in Paris, and outputs from a numerical climate model. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429529900004 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE ; TESTS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19832 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Paris Saclay, CEA CNRS UVSQ, LSCE IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 2.CNRS, Meteo France, CNRM, Toulouse, France; 3.Univ Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; 4.Ouranos, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 5.Ecole Polytech, Palaiseau, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Naveau, Philippe,Ribes, Aurelien,Zwiers, Francis,et al. Revising Return Periods for Record Events in a Climate Event Attribution Context[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(9):3411-3422. |
APA | Naveau, Philippe,Ribes, Aurelien,Zwiers, Francis,Hannart, Alexis,Tuel, Alexandre,&Yiou, Pascal.(2018).Revising Return Periods for Record Events in a Climate Event Attribution Context.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(9),3411-3422. |
MLA | Naveau, Philippe,et al."Revising Return Periods for Record Events in a Climate Event Attribution Context".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.9(2018):3411-3422. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论