资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The authors identify an interdecadal oscillatory mode of the North Atlantic atmosphere-ocean system in a general circulation model (GFDL CM2.1) via a linear inverse model (LIM). The oscillation mechanism is mostly embedded in the subpolar gyre: anomalous advection generates density anomalies in the eastern subpolar gyre, which propagate along the mean gyre circulation and reach the subpolar gyre center around 10 years later, when associated anomalous advection of the opposite sign starts the other half cycle. As density anomalies reach the Labrador Sea deep convection region, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) anomalies are also induced. Both the gyre and AMOC anomalies then propagate equatorward slowly, following the advection of density anomalies. The oscillation is further demonstrated to be more likely an ocean-only mode while excited by the atmospheric forcing; in particular, it can be approximated as a linearly driven damped oscillator that is partly excited by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The slowly evolving interdecadal oscillation significantly improves and prolongs the LIM's prediction skill of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution.