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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0736.1 |
What Can the Internal Variability of CMIP5 Models Tell Us about Their Climate Sensitivity? | |
Lutsko, Nicholas J.1; Takahashi, Ken2 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:13页码:5051-5069 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peru |
英文摘要 | The relationship between climate models' internal variability and their response to external forcings is investigated. Frequency-dependent regressions are performed between the outgoing top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy fluxes and the global-mean surface temperature in the preindustrial control simulations of the CMIP5 archive. Two distinct regimes are found. At subdecadal frequencies the surface temperature and the outgoing shortwave flux are in quadrature, while the outgoing longwave flux is linearly related to temperature and acts as a negative feedback on temperature perturbations. On longer time scales the outgoing shortwave and longwave fluxes are both linearly related to temperature, with the longwave continuing to act as a negative feedback and the shortwave acting as a positive feedback on temperature variability. In addition to the different phase relationships, the two regimes can also be seen in estimates of the coherence and of the frequency-dependent regression coefficients. The frequency-dependent regression coefficients for the total cloudy-sky flux on time scales of 2.5 to 3 years are found to be strongly (r(2) > 0.6) related to the models' equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECSs), suggesting a potential emergent constraint for Earth's ECS. However, O(100) years of data are required for this relationship to become robust. A simple model for Earth's surface temperature variability and its relationship to the TOA fluxes is used to provide a physical interpretation of these results. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437827700006 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ; FLUCTUATION-DISSIPATION THEOREM ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; CLOUD FEEDBACK ; EL-NINO ; ENSO ; DEPENDENCE ; SIMULATIONS ; PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19739 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 2.Inst Geofis Peru, Lima, Peru |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutsko, Nicholas J.,Takahashi, Ken. What Can the Internal Variability of CMIP5 Models Tell Us about Their Climate Sensitivity?[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(13):5051-5069. |
APA | Lutsko, Nicholas J.,&Takahashi, Ken.(2018).What Can the Internal Variability of CMIP5 Models Tell Us about Their Climate Sensitivity?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(13),5051-5069. |
MLA | Lutsko, Nicholas J.,et al."What Can the Internal Variability of CMIP5 Models Tell Us about Their Climate Sensitivity?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.13(2018):5051-5069. |
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