Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0342.1 |
Are Peak Summer Sultry Heat Wave Days over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin Predictable? | |
Gao, Miaoni1,2; Wang, Bin3,4,5; Yang, Jing6,7,8; Dong, Wenjie9 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:6页码:2185-2196 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | The Yangtze-Huaihe River basin (YHRB) is the core region of sultry heat wave occurrence over China during peak summer [July and August (JA)]. The extremely hot and muggy weather is locally controlled by a descending high pressure anomaly connected to the western Pacific subtropical high. During 1961-2015, the heat wave days (HWDs) in JA over the YHRB exhibit large year-to-year and decadal variations. Prediction of the total number of HWDs in JA is of great societal and scientific importance. The summer HWDs are preceded by a zonal dipole SST tendency pattern in the tropical Pacific and a meridional tripole SST anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic. The former signifies a rapid transition from a decaying central Pacific El Nino in early spring to a developing eastern Pacific La Nina in summer, which enhances the western Pacific subtropical high and increases pressure over the YHRB by altering the Walker circulation. The North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies persist from the preceding winter to JA and excite a circumglobal teleconnection pattern placing a high pressure anomaly over the YHRB. To predict the JA HWDs, a 1-month lead prediction model is established with the above two predictors. The forward-rolling hindcast achieves a significant correlation skill of 0.66 for 1981-2015, and the independent forecast skill made for 1996-2015 reaches 0.73. These results indicate the source of predictability of summer HWDs and provide an estimate for the potential predictability, suggesting about 55% of the total variance may be potentially predictable. This study also reveals greater possibilities for dynamical models to improve their prediction skills. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000427447000006 |
WOS关键词 | NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE SUMMER ; CHINA ; MORTALITY ; EXTREMES ; PACIFIC ; IMPACT ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19715 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 4.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 5.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Earth Syst Modeling Ctr, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 6.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China; 7.Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing, Peoples R China; 8.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 9.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao, Miaoni,Wang, Bin,Yang, Jing,et al. Are Peak Summer Sultry Heat Wave Days over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin Predictable?[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(6):2185-2196. |
APA | Gao, Miaoni,Wang, Bin,Yang, Jing,&Dong, Wenjie.(2018).Are Peak Summer Sultry Heat Wave Days over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin Predictable?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(6),2185-2196. |
MLA | Gao, Miaoni,et al."Are Peak Summer Sultry Heat Wave Days over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin Predictable?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.6(2018):2185-2196. |
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