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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0151.1 |
How Robust Is the Weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Idealized Transient Climate Simulations? | |
Plesca, Elina; Gruetzun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A. | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:1页码:81-97 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | The tropical overturning circulations are likely weakening under increased CO2 forcing. However, insufficient understanding of the circulations' dynamics diminishes the full confidence in such a response. Based on a CMIP5 idealized climate experiment, this study investigates the changes in the Pacific Walker circulation under anthropogenic forcing and the sensitivity of its weakening response to internal variability, general circulation model (GCM) configuration, and indexing method. The sensitivity to internal variability is analyzed by using a 68-member ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR model, and the influence of model physics is analyzed by using the 28-member CMIP5 ensemble. Three simple circulation indices-based on mean sea level pressure, 500-hPa vertical velocity, and 200-hPa velocity potential-are computed for each member of the two ensembles. The study uses the output of the CMIP5 idealized transient climate simulations with 1% yr(-1) CO2 increase from preindustrial level, and investigates the detected circulation response until the moment of CO2 doubling (70 yr). Depending on the indexing method, it is found that 50%-93% of the MPI-ESM-LR and 54%-75% of the CMIP5 ensemble members project significant negative trends in the circulation's intensity. This large spread in the ensembles reduces the confidence that a weakening circulation is a robust feature of climate change. Furthermore, the similar magnitude of the spread in both ensembles shows that the Walker circulation response is strongly influenced by natural variability, even over a 70-yr period. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429528800005 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; PATTERNS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19709 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Hamburg, Meteorol Inst, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil, Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Plesca, Elina,Gruetzun, Verena,Buehler, Stefan A.. How Robust Is the Weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Idealized Transient Climate Simulations?[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(1):81-97. |
APA | Plesca, Elina,Gruetzun, Verena,&Buehler, Stefan A..(2018).How Robust Is the Weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Idealized Transient Climate Simulations?.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(1),81-97. |
MLA | Plesca, Elina,et al."How Robust Is the Weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Idealized Transient Climate Simulations?".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.1(2018):81-97. |
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