Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0558.1 |
Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying | |
Hoell, Andrew1; Hoerling, Martin1; Eischeid, Jon2; Quan, Xiao-Wei2; Liebmann, Brant2 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Two theories for observed East Africa drying trends during March-May 1979-2013 are reconciled. Both hypothesize that variations in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) caused East Africa drying. The first invokes a mainly human cause resulting from sensitivity to secular warming of Indo-western Pacific SSTs. The second invokes a mainly natural cause resulting from sensitivity to a strong articulation of ENSO-like Pacific decadal variability involving warming of the western Pacific and cooling of the central Pacific. Historical atmospheric model simulations indicate that observed SST variations contributed significantly to the East Africa drying trend during March-May 1979-2013. By contrast, historical coupled model simulations suggest that external radiative forcing alone, including the ocean's response to that forcing, did not contribute significantly to East Africa drying. Recognizing that the observed SST variations involved a commingling of natural and anthropogenic effects, this study diagnosed how East African rainfall sensitivity was conditionally dependent on the interplay of those factors. East African rainfall trends in historical coupled models were intercompared between two composites of ENSO-like decadal variability, one operating in the early twentieth century before appreciable global warming and the other in the early twenty-first century of strong global warming. The authors find the coaction of global warming with ENSO-like decadal variability can significantly enhance 35-yr East Africa drying trends relative to when the natural mode of ocean variability acts alone. A human-induced change via its interplay with an extreme articulation of natural variability may thus have been key to Africa drying; however, these results are speculative owing to differences among two independent suites of coupled model ensembles. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395765900005 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; LONG RAINS ; PACIFIC ; CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; ENSO ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19690 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Div Phys Sci, NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80301 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Div Phys Sci, NOAA Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80301 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hoell, Andrew,Hoerling, Martin,Eischeid, Jon,et al. Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(6). |
APA | Hoell, Andrew,Hoerling, Martin,Eischeid, Jon,Quan, Xiao-Wei,&Liebmann, Brant.(2017).Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(6). |
MLA | Hoell, Andrew,et al."Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.6(2017). |
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