Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0707.1 |
Initialization and Potential Predictability of Soil Moisture in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System | |
Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Merryfield, William J. | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:13页码:5205-5224 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | The initialization and potential predictability of soil moisture in CanCM4 hindcasts during 1981-2010 is assessed. CanCM4 is one of the two global climate models employed by the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) providing operational multiseasonal forecasts for Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Soil moisture forecast initialization in CanSIPS is determined by the response of the land component to forcing from data-constrained model atmospheric fields. We evaluate hindcast initial conditions for soil moisture and its atmospheric forcings against observation-based datasets. Although model values of soil moisture variability compare relatively well with a blend of two reanalysis products, there is significant disagreement in the tropics and arid regions linked to biases in precipitation, as well as in snow-covered regions, likely the result of biases in the timing of snow onset and melt. The temporal variance of initial soil moisture anomalies is typically larger in regions of considerable precipitation variability and in cold continental areas of shallow soil depth. Appreciable variance of initial conditions, combined with persistence of the initial anomalies and the model's ability to represent future climate variations, lead to potentially predictable soil moisture variance exceeding 60% of the total variance for up to 3-4 months in the tropics and 6-7 months in the mid- to high latitudes during hemispheric winter. Potential predictability at longer leads is primarily found in the tropics and extratropical areas of ENSO-teleconnected influences. We use lagged partial correlations to show that ENSO-teleconnected precipitation in CanCM4 is a likely source of potential predictability of soil moisture up to 1-yr lead in CanSIPS hindcasts. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437827700014 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; FORECAST MODEL ; CLIMATE MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; ATMOSPHERE ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; SIMULATIONS ; VARIABILITY ; PERSISTENCE ; DYNAMICS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19666 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel,Merryfield, William J.. Initialization and Potential Predictability of Soil Moisture in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(13):5205-5224. |
APA | Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel,&Merryfield, William J..(2018).Initialization and Potential Predictability of Soil Moisture in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(13),5205-5224. |
MLA | Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel,et al."Initialization and Potential Predictability of Soil Moisture in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.13(2018):5205-5224. |
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