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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0159.1
Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78
Singh, Deepti1,2; Seager, Richard2; Cook, Benjamin I.2,3; Cane, Mark2; Ting, Mingfang2; Cook, Edward2; Davis, Michael4
2018-12-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:23页码:9445-9467
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the Monsoon Asia region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulationsone forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SSTswere used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.


英文关键词Indian Ocean North Atlantic Ocean Drought El Nino Climate models Climate variability
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000449262500002
WOS关键词INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE ; EL-NINO ; NORTHEAST BRAZIL ; ASIAN MONSOON ; RAINFALL RESPONSE ; VARIABILITY ; DROUGHT ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; ENSO
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19661
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Washington State Univ, Sch Environm, Vancouver, WA 98686 USA;
2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA;
3.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA;
4.Univ Calif Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521 USA
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GB/T 7714
Singh, Deepti,Seager, Richard,Cook, Benjamin I.,et al. Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(23):9445-9467.
APA Singh, Deepti.,Seager, Richard.,Cook, Benjamin I..,Cane, Mark.,Ting, Mingfang.,...&Davis, Michael.(2018).Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(23),9445-9467.
MLA Singh, Deepti,et al."Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.23(2018):9445-9467.
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