Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0453.1 |
Historical and Projected Eastern Pacific and Intra-Americas Sea TD-Wave Activity in a Selection of IPCC AR5 Models | |
Serra, Yolande L.1; Geil, Kerrie2 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The tracks of westward-propagating synoptic disturbances across the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) and far-eastern Pacific, known as easterly waves or tropical depression (TD) waves, are an important feature of the region's climate. They are associated with heavy rainfall events, seed the majority of tropical cyclones, and contribute to the mean rainfall across the region. This study examines the ability of current climate models (CMIP5) to simulate TD-wave activity and associated environmental factors across the IAS and far-eastern Pacific as compared to reanalysis. Model projections for the future are then compared with the historical model experiment to investigate the southward shift in CMIP5 track density and the environmental factors that may contribute to it. While historical biases in TD-wave track-density patterns are well correlated with model biases in sea surface temperature and midlevel moisture, the projected southward shift of the TD track density by the end of the twenty-first century in CMIP5 models is best correlated with changes in deep wind shear and midlevel moisture. In addition, the genesis potential index is found to be a good indicator of both present and future regions of high TD-wave track density for the models in this region. This last result may be useful for understanding the more complex relationship between tropical cyclones and this index in models found in other studies. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399678400001 |
WOS关键词 | COUPLED EQUATORIAL WAVES ; INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODELS ; TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CMIP5 MODELS ; NORTH PACIFIC ; WARM POOL ; PART I ; DISTURBANCES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19649 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Ocean, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Atmospher Sci, Tucson, AZ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Serra, Yolande L.,Geil, Kerrie. Historical and Projected Eastern Pacific and Intra-Americas Sea TD-Wave Activity in a Selection of IPCC AR5 Models[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(7). |
APA | Serra, Yolande L.,&Geil, Kerrie.(2017).Historical and Projected Eastern Pacific and Intra-Americas Sea TD-Wave Activity in a Selection of IPCC AR5 Models.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(7). |
MLA | Serra, Yolande L.,et al."Historical and Projected Eastern Pacific and Intra-Americas Sea TD-Wave Activity in a Selection of IPCC AR5 Models".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.7(2017). |
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