Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1126/science.aal4369 |
Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States | |
Hsiang, Solomon1,2; Kopp, Robert3,4; Jina, Amir5,6; Rising, James1,7; Delgado, Michael8; Mohan, Shashank8; Rasmussen, D. J.9; Muir-Wood, Robert10; Wilson, Paul10; Oppenheimer, Michael9,11; Larsen, Kate8; Houser, Trevor8 | |
2017-06-30 | |
发表期刊 | SCIENCE |
ISSN | 0036-8075 |
EISSN | 1095-9203 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 356期号:6345页码:1362-1368 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors-agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor-increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1 degrees C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404351500032 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE ; ADAPTATION ; WEATHER ; MODELS ; POLICY ; FLUCTUATIONS ; PROJECTIONS ; MORTALITY ; IMPACTS ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/196364 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Berkeley, Goldman Sch Publ Policy, Global Policy Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 2.Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA; 3.Rutgers State Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USA; 4.Rutgers State Univ, Inst Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USA; 5.Univ Chicago, Dept Econ, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; 6.Univ Chicago, Harris Sch Publ Policy, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; 7.Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy Resource Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; 8.Rhodium Grp, New York, NY USA; 9.Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 10.Risk Management Solut, Newark, CA USA; 11.Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hsiang, Solomon,Kopp, Robert,Jina, Amir,et al. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States[J]. SCIENCE,2017,356(6345):1362-1368. |
APA | Hsiang, Solomon.,Kopp, Robert.,Jina, Amir.,Rising, James.,Delgado, Michael.,...&Houser, Trevor.(2017).Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States.SCIENCE,356(6345),1362-1368. |
MLA | Hsiang, Solomon,et al."Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States".SCIENCE 356.6345(2017):1362-1368. |
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