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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0454.1 |
Intraseasonal Tropical Cyclogenesis Prediction in a Global Coupled Model System | |
Jiang, Xianan1,2; Xiang, Baoqiang3,4; Zhao, Ming3; Li, Tim5; Lin, Shian-Jiann3; Wang, Zhuo6; Chen, Jan-Huey3,4 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:15页码:6209-6227 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Motivated by increasing demand in the community for intraseasonal predictions of weather extremes, predictive skill of tropical cyclogenesis is investigated in this study based on a global coupled model system. Limited intraseasonal cyclogenesis prediction skill with a high false alarm rate is found when averaged over about 600 tropical cyclones (TCs) over global oceans from 2003 to 2013, particularly over the North Atlantic (NA). Relatively skillful genesis predictions with more than 1-week lead time are only evident for about 10% of the total TCs. Further analyses suggest that TCs with relatively higher genesis skill are closely associated with the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical synoptic waves, with their geneses strongly phase-locked to the convectively active region of the MJO and low-level cyclonic vorticity associated with synoptic-scale waves. Moreover, higher cyclogenesis prediction skill is found for TCs that formed during the enhanced periods of strong MJO episodes than those during weak or suppressed MJO periods. All these results confirm the critical role of the MJO and tropical synoptic waves for intraseasonal prediction of TC activity. Tropical cyclogenesis prediction skill in this coupled model is found to be closely associated with model predictability of several large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical fields. Particularly over the NA, higher predictability of low-level relative vorticity, midlevel humidity, and vertical zonal wind shear is evident along a tropical belt from the West Africa coast to the Caribbean Sea, in accord with more predictable cyclogenesis over this region. Over the extratropical NA, large-scale variables exhibit less predictability due to influences of extratropical systems, leading to poor cyclogenesis predictive skill. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000450691700002 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; SYNOPTIC-SCALE DISTURBANCES ; STATISTICAL FORECAST MODEL ; CYCLONE GENESIS FORECASTS ; EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS ; ECMWF 32-DAY ENSEMBLE ; ROSSBY-GRAVITY WAVES ; PART I ; EQUATORIAL WAVES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19618 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Joint Inst Reg Earth Syst Sci & Engn, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 2.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA; 3.Princeton Univ, NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 4.Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO USA; 5.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 6.Univ Illinois, Urbana, IL USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jiang, Xianan,Xiang, Baoqiang,Zhao, Ming,et al. Intraseasonal Tropical Cyclogenesis Prediction in a Global Coupled Model System[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(15):6209-6227. |
APA | Jiang, Xianan.,Xiang, Baoqiang.,Zhao, Ming.,Li, Tim.,Lin, Shian-Jiann.,...&Chen, Jan-Huey.(2018).Intraseasonal Tropical Cyclogenesis Prediction in a Global Coupled Model System.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(15),6209-6227. |
MLA | Jiang, Xianan,et al."Intraseasonal Tropical Cyclogenesis Prediction in a Global Coupled Model System".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.15(2018):6209-6227. |
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