Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0169.1 |
Winter Coastal Divergence as a Predictor for the Minimum Sea Ice Extent in the Laptev Sea | |
Brunette, Charles1; Tremblay, Bruno1; Newton, Robert2 | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:4页码:1063-1080 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; USA |
英文摘要 | Seasonal predictability of the minimum sea ice extent (SIE) in the Laptev Sea is investigated using winter coastal divergence as a predictor. From February to May, the new ice forming in wind-driven coastal polynyas grows to a thickness approximately equal to the climatological thickness loss due to summer thermodynamic processes. Estimating the area of sea ice that is preconditioned to melt enables seasonal predictability of the minimum SIE. Wintertime ice motion is quantified by seeding passive tracers along the coastlines and advecting them with the Lagrangian Ice Tracking System (LITS) forced with sea ice drifts from the Polar Pathfinder dataset for years 1992-2016. LITS-derived landfast ice estimates are comparable to those of the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ice charts. Time series of the minimum SIE and coastal divergence show trends of -24.2% and +31.3% per decade, respectively. Statistically significant correlation (r = -0.63) between anomalies of coastal divergence and the following September SIE occurs for coastal divergence integrated from February to the beginning of May. Using the coastal divergence anomaly to predict the minimum SIE departure from the trend improves the explained variance by 21% compared to hindcasts based on persistence of the linear trend. Coastal divergence anomalies correlate with the winter mean Arctic Oscillation index (r = 0.69). LITS-derived areas of coastal divergence tend to underestimate the total area covered by thin ice in the CryoSat-2/SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) thickness dataset, as suggested by a thermodynamic sea ice growth model. |
英文关键词 | Arctic Sea ice Lagrangian circulation/transport Satellite observations Seasonal forecasting Interannual variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000457324400005 |
WOS关键词 | ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; SNOW DEPTH ; MODEL ; PREDICTABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; THICKNESS ; EXPORT ; OCEAN ; TEMPERATURE ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19616 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.McGill Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Brunette, Charles,Tremblay, Bruno,Newton, Robert. Winter Coastal Divergence as a Predictor for the Minimum Sea Ice Extent in the Laptev Sea[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(4):1063-1080. |
APA | Brunette, Charles,Tremblay, Bruno,&Newton, Robert.(2019).Winter Coastal Divergence as a Predictor for the Minimum Sea Ice Extent in the Laptev Sea.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(4),1063-1080. |
MLA | Brunette, Charles,et al."Winter Coastal Divergence as a Predictor for the Minimum Sea Ice Extent in the Laptev Sea".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.4(2019):1063-1080. |
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