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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0226.1 |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere | |
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.1,2,4; Badin, Gualtiero3; Koszalka, Inga M.1,2 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:3页码:997-1014 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12-16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18-20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425166100005 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-ICE ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR ; CLIMATE ; PREDICTIONS ; DYNAMICS ; PERSISTENCE ; MECHANISMS ; SIGNATURE ; FORECASTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19594 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Kiel, Germany; 2.Christian Albrechts Univ Kiel, Kiel, Germany; 3.Univ Hamburg, Inst Oceanog, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil CEN, Hamburg, Germany; 4.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,Badin, Gualtiero,Koszalka, Inga M.. How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(3):997-1014. |
APA | Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,Badin, Gualtiero,&Koszalka, Inga M..(2018).How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(3),997-1014. |
MLA | Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,et al."How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.3(2018):997-1014. |
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