GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0226.1
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.1,2,4; Badin, Gualtiero3; Koszalka, Inga M.1,2
2018-02-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:3页码:997-1014
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany; Switzerland
英文摘要

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12-16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18-20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000425166100005
WOS关键词SEA-ICE ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR ; CLIMATE ; PREDICTIONS ; DYNAMICS ; PERSISTENCE ; MECHANISMS ; SIGNATURE ; FORECASTS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19594
专题气候变化
作者单位1.GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Kiel, Germany;
2.Christian Albrechts Univ Kiel, Kiel, Germany;
3.Univ Hamburg, Inst Oceanog, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil CEN, Hamburg, Germany;
4.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,Badin, Gualtiero,Koszalka, Inga M.. How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(3):997-1014.
APA Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,Badin, Gualtiero,&Koszalka, Inga M..(2018).How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(3),997-1014.
MLA Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,et al."How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.3(2018):997-1014.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Domeisen, Daniela I. V.]的文章
[Badin, Gualtiero]的文章
[Koszalka, Inga M.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Domeisen, Daniela I. V.]的文章
[Badin, Gualtiero]的文章
[Koszalka, Inga M.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Domeisen, Daniela I. V.]的文章
[Badin, Gualtiero]的文章
[Koszalka, Inga M.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。