Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1126/science.aal2887 |
Improving election prediction internationally | |
Kennedy, Ryan1; Wojcik, Stefan2,3; Lazer, David2,3 | |
2017-02-03 | |
发表期刊 | SCIENCE |
ISSN | 0036-8075 |
EISSN | 1095-9203 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 355期号:6324页码:515-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data. We developed prediction models by means of an election data set covering 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and a separate data set with extensive polling data from 146 election rounds. We also participated in two live forecasting experiments. Our models correctly predicted 80 to 90% of elections in out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that global elections can be successfully modeled and that they are likely to become more predictable as more information becomes available in future elections. The results provide strong evidence for the impact of political institutions and incumbent advantage. They also provide evidence to support contentions about the importance of international linkage and aid. Direct evidence for economic indicators as predictors of election outcomes is relatively weak. The results suggest that, with some adjustments, global polling is a robust predictor of election outcomes, even in developing states. Implications of these findings after the latest U.S. presidential election are discussed. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000393183100043 |
WOS关键词 | FOREIGN-AID ; BART |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/195352 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Houston, Ctr Int & Comparat Studies, Houston, TX 77004 USA; 2.Northeastern Univ, Lazer Lab, Boston, MA 02115 USA; 3.Harvard Univ, Inst Quantitat Social Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kennedy, Ryan,Wojcik, Stefan,Lazer, David. Improving election prediction internationally[J]. SCIENCE,2017,355(6324):515-+. |
APA | Kennedy, Ryan,Wojcik, Stefan,&Lazer, David.(2017).Improving election prediction internationally.SCIENCE,355(6324),515-+. |
MLA | Kennedy, Ryan,et al."Improving election prediction internationally".SCIENCE 355.6324(2017):515-+. |
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