Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-18-4817-2018 |
Low-carbon energy generates public health savings in California | |
Zapata, Christina B.1; Yang, Chris2; Yeh, Sonia2; Ogden, Joan2; Kleeman, Michael J.1 | |
2018-04-10 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 18期号:7页码:4817-4830 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | California's goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to a level that is 80% below 1990 levels by the year 2050 will require adoption of low-carbon energy sources across all economic sectors. In addition to reducing GHG emissions, shifting to fuels with lower carbon intensity will change concentrations of short-lived conventional air pollutants, including airborne particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 mu m (PM2.5) and ozone (O-3). Here we evaluate how business-as-usual (BAU) air pollution and public health in California will be transformed in the year 2050 through the adoption of low-carbon technologies, expanded electrification, and modified activity patterns within a low-carbon energy scenario (GHG-Step). Both the BAU and GHG-Step statewide emission scenarios were constructed using the energy-economic optimization model, CA-TIMES, that calculates the multi-sector energy portfolio that meets projected energy supply and demand at the lowest cost, while also satisfying scenario-specific GHG emissions constraints. Corresponding criteria pollutant emissions for each scenario were then spatially allocated at 4 km resolution to support air quality analysis in different regions of the state. Meteorological inputs for the year 2054 were generated under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 future climate. Annual-average PM2.5 and O-3 concentrations were predicted using the modified emissions and meteorology inputs with a regional chemical transport model. In the final phase of the analysis, mortality (total deaths) and mortality rate (deaths per 100 000) were calculated using established exposure-response relationships from air pollution epidemiology combined with simulated annual-average PM2.5 and O-3 exposure. Net emissions reductions across all sectors are -36% for PM0.1 mass, -3.6% for PM2.5 mass, -10.6% for PM2.5 elemental carbon, -13.3% for PM2.5 organic carbon, -13.7% for NOx, and -27.5% for NH3. Predicted deaths associated with air pollution in 2050 dropped by 24-26% in California (1537-2758 avoided deaths yr(-1)) in the "climate-friendly" 2050 GHG-Step scenario, which is equivalent to a 54-56% reduction in the air pollution mortality rate (deaths per 100 000) relative to 2010 levels. These avoided deaths have an estimated value of USD 11.4-20.4 billion yr(-1) based on the present-day value of a statistical life (VSL) equal to USD 7.6 million. The costs for reducing California GHG emissions 80% below 1990 levels by the year 2050 depend strongly on numerous external factors such as the global price of oil. Best estimates suggest that meeting an intermediate target (40% reduction in GHG emissions by the year 2030) using a non-optimized scenario would reduce personal income by USD 4.95 billion yr(-1) (-0.15 %) and lower overall state gross domestic product by USD 16.1 billion yr(-1) (-0.45 %). The public health benefits described here are comparable to these cost estimates, making a compelling argument for the adoption of low-carbon energy in California, with implications for other regions in the United States and across the world. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429588400001 |
WOS关键词 | GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; AIR-QUALITY ; UNITED-STATES ; PARTICULATE MATTER ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LOW-COST ; MODEL ; WATER ; WIND ; TECHNOLOGY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19446 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Davis, CA 95616 USA; 2.Univ Calif Davis, Inst Transportat Studies, Davis, CA 95616 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zapata, Christina B.,Yang, Chris,Yeh, Sonia,et al. Low-carbon energy generates public health savings in California[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2018,18(7):4817-4830. |
APA | Zapata, Christina B.,Yang, Chris,Yeh, Sonia,Ogden, Joan,&Kleeman, Michael J..(2018).Low-carbon energy generates public health savings in California.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,18(7),4817-4830. |
MLA | Zapata, Christina B.,et al."Low-carbon energy generates public health savings in California".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 18.7(2018):4817-4830. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论