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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0319.1
How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO
Xu, Yangyang1; Hu, Aixue2
2018-02-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:4页码:1547-1563
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Decadal climate variability of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific Ocean can be characterized by interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) or Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Although the procedures to derive the IPO and PDO indices differ in their regional focuses and filtering methods to remove interannual variability, the IPO and PDO are highly correlated in time and are often used interchangeably. Studies have shown that the IPO and PDO conjointly (IPO/PDO for conciseness) play a vital role in modulating the pace of global warming. It is less clear, however, how externally forced global warming may, in turn, affect the IPO/PDO. One obstacle to revealing this effect is that the conventional definitions of the IPO/PDO fail to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the background warming trend, which causes the IPO/PDO to be conflated with the warming trend, especially for the twenty-first-century simulation when the forced change is likely to be more dominant. Using a large-ensemble simulation in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), it is shown here that a better practice of detrending prior to EOF analysis is to remove the local and nonlinear trend, defined as the ensemble-mean time series at each grid box (or simply as the quadratic fit of the local time series if such an ensemble is not available). The revised IPO/PDO index is purely indicative of internal decadal variability. In the twenty-first-century warmer climate, the IPO/PDO has a weaker amplitude in space, a higher frequency in time, and a muted impact on global and North American temperature and rainfall.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000425166600014
WOS关键词TROPICAL PACIFIC ; INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE ; ENSO ; INTENSIFICATION ; CIRCULATION ; OSCILLATION ; MONSOON ; IMPACT ; US
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19409
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, College Stn, TX 77843 USA;
2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
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Xu, Yangyang,Hu, Aixue. How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(4):1547-1563.
APA Xu, Yangyang,&Hu, Aixue.(2018).How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(4),1547-1563.
MLA Xu, Yangyang,et al."How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.4(2018):1547-1563.
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