Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0355.1 |
Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range | |
Pan, Baoxiang1; Hsu, Kuolin1,2; AghaKouchak, Amir1; Sorooshian, Soroosh1; Higgins, Wayne3 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:1页码:161-182 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Taiwan |
英文摘要 | Precipitation variability significantly influences the heavily populated West Coast of the United States, raising the need for reliable predictions. We investigate the region's short- to extended-range precipitation prediction skill using the hindcast database of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S). The prediction skill-lead time relationship is evaluated, using both deterministic and probabilistic skill scores. Results show that the S2S models display advantageous deterministic skill at week 1. For week 2, prediction is useful for the best-performing model, with a Pearson correlation coefficient larger than 0.6. Beyond week 2, predictions generally provide little useful deterministic skill. Sources of extended-range predictability are investigated, focusing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). We found that periods of heavy precipitation associated with ENSO are more predictable at the extended range period. During El Nino years, Southern California tends to receive more precipitation in late winter, and most models show better extended-range prediction skill. On the contrary, during La Nina years Oregon tends to receive more precipitation in winter, with most models showing better extended-range skill. We believe the excessive precipitation and improved extended-range prediction skill are caused by the meridional shift of baroclinic systems as modulated by ENSO. Through examining precipitation anomalies conditioned on the MJO, we verified that active MJO events systematically modulate the area's precipitation distribution. Our results show that most models do not represent the MJO or its associated teleconnections, especially at phases 3-4. However, some models exhibit enhanced extended-range prediction skills under active MJO conditions. |
英文关键词 | La Nina Madden-Julian oscillation Forecast verification skill Hindcasts Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (PQPF) Short-range prediction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452473700002 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; FORECAST SKILL ; TROPICAL CONVECTION ; CLIMATE ; SYSTEM ; MODEL ; TELECONNECTIONS ; PREDICTABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; CALIFORNIA |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19348 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Irvine, Ctr Hydrometeorol & Remote Sensing, Irvine, CA 92697 USA; 2.Natl Taiwan Ocean Engn, Ctr Excellence Ocean Engn, Keelung, Taiwan; 3.NOAA, Climate Program Off, Silver Spring, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pan, Baoxiang,Hsu, Kuolin,AghaKouchak, Amir,et al. Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(1):161-182. |
APA | Pan, Baoxiang,Hsu, Kuolin,AghaKouchak, Amir,Sorooshian, Soroosh,&Higgins, Wayne.(2019).Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(1),161-182. |
MLA | Pan, Baoxiang,et al."Precipitation Prediction Skill for the West Coast United States: From Short to Extended Range".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.1(2019):161-182. |
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