资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Energy transitions unfold under the influence of solo-technical, political and economic uncertainties. This paper introduces a narrative-informed exploratory approach for analysing future energy transition pathways under these uncertainty conditions. In this approach, exploratory modelling is used to explore the impact of various uncertainties, such as potential installed capacity and supporting policies for different energy options, on the unfolding of transition pathways. The approach produces several sets of scenarios. We complement this quantitative exploration of the future with narratives (storylines) generated based on the concepts in the sustain ability transitions field. Narratives are used (i) as a supporting framework for model structure; (ii) to guide the exploration of the future; and (iii) to interpret the ensemble of quantitative scenarios. We describe how synergies between narratives and exploratory modelling inform both the framed and open-ended exploration of future transition pathways. The approach is demonstrated with a case study of the transition in India's electricity sector. We show that the realisation of the 100 GW solar electricity target by 2022 is unlikely, and that the development of solar electricity is highly dependent on the active role of government.