Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.05.049 |
Estimating Peak uranium production in China - Based on a Stella model | |
Fang, Jianchun1,2; Lau, Chi Keung Marco3; Lu, Zhou4; Wu, Wanshan5 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 120页码:250-258 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; England |
英文摘要 | This paper uses the Logistic Curve and the STELLA model to simulate the Hubbert Peak uranium production in China. We used three scenarios to estimate China's Peak uranium. And the results are quite robust. According to Scenario 3, the Hubbert Peak uranium production is expected to be reached in 2065 with 4605 t per year. Before the peak, China's uranium demand will grow at the rate of about 7.69% per year, which is about three times the growth rate of production. China's uranium import dependence is estimated to continue to increase. In order to improve uranium resources security, the Chinese government needs to increase investment in uranium ore exploration, encourage private sector's investment in uranium production to promote competition, and improve cooperation with non-uranium mining enterprises for more efficient use of resources. To enhance the country's uranium security, China should establish development funds, accelerate acquisition of uranium enterprises abroad, increase R&D in the unconventional uranium resources such as phosphate mine, and take advantage of price downturn in uranium market to increase strategic reserves. |
英文关键词 | Uranium Hubbert Peak Logistic curve STELLA model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440123300023 |
WOS关键词 | OIL PRODUCTION ; COAL PRODUCTION ; HUBBERT MODEL ; FORECAST ; BRAZIL |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19012 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Zhejiang Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Hangzhou 310023, Zhejiang, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Social Sci, Inst World Econ & Polit, Beijing 100732, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Huddersfield, Huddersfield Business Sch, Dept Accountancy Finance & Econ, Huddersfield HD1 3DH, W Yorkshire, England; 4.Tianjin Univ Commerce, Sch Econ, Tianjin, Peoples R China; 5.Zhejiang Univ, Sch Econ, Hangzhou 310027, Zhejiang, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fang, Jianchun,Lau, Chi Keung Marco,Lu, Zhou,et al. Estimating Peak uranium production in China - Based on a Stella model[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,120:250-258. |
APA | Fang, Jianchun,Lau, Chi Keung Marco,Lu, Zhou,&Wu, Wanshan.(2018).Estimating Peak uranium production in China - Based on a Stella model.ENERGY POLICY,120,250-258. |
MLA | Fang, Jianchun,et al."Estimating Peak uranium production in China - Based on a Stella model".ENERGY POLICY 120(2018):250-258. |
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