Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.049 |
The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis | |
Chai, Jian1,4; Liang, Ting2; Lai, Kin Keung1,3; Zhang, Zhe George4; Wang, Shouyang5 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 119页码:215-225 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Due to the growing pollution concerns in China, there have been major efforts to design interrelated environmental protection policies. As the policy of reducing coal consumption is implemented, China's natural gas consumption is expected to commensurately rise. Such a trend may lead to the significant impacts on China's energy security and the global gas market. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between the natural gas consumption and influencing factors in a comprehensive LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework. It is found that fossil energy structure and non-clean energy structure are the most important factors followed by urbanization, per capita GDP, industrialization, and industrial energy intensity. And then, these factors from LMDI decomposition are innovatively divided into economic development and cleaning indicators when using scenario analysis to forecast China's natural gas consumption. The prediction results suggest that economic development with high clean energy system would make a significant increase in gas consumption, a commensurate increase in demand even the system of economic-energy under scenario of low economic development and low clean. As China would depend on gas imports to meet this demand, there may be a serious supply shortage by 2020. Therefore, the government should consider the future energy security issue in making economic and environmental policies. |
英文关键词 | Natural gas consumption LMDI decomposition STIRPAT model PLS regression Scenario analysis |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439671200021 |
WOS关键词 | ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS ; DRIVING FACTORS ; URBANIZATION ; INTENSITY ; DEMAND ; POLICY |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18968 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian 710126, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; 2.Hunan Univ, Sch Business, Changsha 410082, Hunan, Peoples R China; 3.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Management Sci, Hong Kong 999077, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; 4.Western Washington Univ, Coll Business & Econ, Bellingham, WA 98225 USA; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chai, Jian,Liang, Ting,Lai, Kin Keung,et al. The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,119:215-225. |
APA | Chai, Jian,Liang, Ting,Lai, Kin Keung,Zhang, Zhe George,&Wang, Shouyang.(2018).The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis.ENERGY POLICY,119,215-225. |
MLA | Chai, Jian,et al."The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis".ENERGY POLICY 119(2018):215-225. |
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