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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-05017-3 |
The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example | |
Hochman, Assaf1; Alpert, Pinhas2; Kunin, Pavel2; Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita3; Harpaz, Tzvi2,4; Saaroni, Hadas4; Messori, Gabriele5,6,7 | |
2019-11-02 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Israel; Sweden |
英文摘要 | The Mediterranean region is projected to be significantly affected by climate change through warming and drying. The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) is particularly vulnerable since the bulk of the precipitation in the region is associated with a specific circulation pattern, known as Cyprus Low (CL). Here, we study the influence of increased greenhouse gases on the average properties and dynamics of CLs, using a regional semi-objective synoptic classification. The classification is applied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the present day (1986-2005) as well as to eight CMIP5 models for the present day and for the end of the century (2081-2100; RCP8.5). This is complemented by a dynamical systems analysis, which is used to investigate changes in the dynamics and intrinsic predictability of the CLs. Finally, a statistical downscaling algorithm, based on past analogues, is applied to eighteen rain stations over Israel, and is used to project precipitation changes associated with CLs. Significant changes in CL properties are found under climate change. The models project an increase in CL meridional pressure gradient (0.5-1.5 hPa/1000 km), which results primarily from a strong increase in the pressure over the southern part of the study region. Our results further point to a decrease in CL frequency (- 35%, as already noted in an earlier study) and persistence (- 8%). Furthermore, the daily precipitation associated with CL occurrences over Israel for 2081-2100 is projected to significantly reduce (- 26%). The projected drying over the EM can be partitioned between a decrease in CL frequency ( 137 mm year(-1)) and a reduction in CL-driven daily precipitation ( 67 mm year(-1)). The models further indicate that CLs will be less predictable in the future. |
英文关键词 | Cyprus low Cyclone predictability Climate change Cyclone dynamics Synoptic classification Dynamical systems Statistical downscaling Daily precipitation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493693700001 |
WOS关键词 | DAILY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ; GREENHOUSE GASES ; STORM TRACKS ; CLIMATE ; CMIP5 ; MODEL ; CLASSIFICATION ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; INTENSITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188203 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Dept Tropospher Res, D-76344 Eggenstein Leopoldshafen, Germany; 2.Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geophys, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel; 3.Israel Inst Biol Res, Dept Appl Math, Environm Sci Div, Ness Ziona, Israel; 4.Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geog & Human Environm, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel; 5.Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden; 6.Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden; 7.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hochman, Assaf,Alpert, Pinhas,Kunin, Pavel,et al. The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019. |
APA | Hochman, Assaf.,Alpert, Pinhas.,Kunin, Pavel.,Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita.,Harpaz, Tzvi.,...&Messori, Gabriele.(2019).The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example.CLIMATE DYNAMICS. |
MLA | Hochman, Assaf,et al."The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019). |
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