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DOI | 10.1038/s41558-019-0583-9 |
Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality | |
Liu, Yanlan1; Kumar, Mukesh1,2; Katul, Gabriel G.1,3; Porporato, Amilcare4,5 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:11页码:880-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate-induced forest mortality is being widely observed across the globe. Predicting forest mortality remains challenging because the physiological mechanisms causing mortality are not fully understood and empirical relations between climatology and mortality are subject to change. Here, we show that the temporal loss of resilience, a phenomenon often detected as a system approaches a tipping point, can be used as an early warning signal (EWS) to predict the likelihood of forest mortality directly from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics. We tested the proposed approach on data from Californian forests and found that the EWS can often be detected before reduced greenness, between 6 to 19 months before mortality. The EWS shows a species-specific relation with mortality, and is able to capture its spatio-temporal variations. These findings highlight the potential for such an EWS to predict forest mortality in the near-term. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493735100023 |
WOS关键词 | INDUCED TREE MORTALITY ; PLANT-SURVIVAL ; DIE-OFF ; DROUGHT ; VEGETATION ; MECHANISMS ; PATTERNS ; CLIMATE ; COMPETITION ; HYDRAULICS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188185 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27708 USA; 2.Univ Alabama, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA; 3.Duke Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Durham, NC 27706 USA; 4.Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 5.Princeton Univ, Princeton Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Yanlan,Kumar, Mukesh,Katul, Gabriel G.,et al. Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(11):880-+. |
APA | Liu, Yanlan,Kumar, Mukesh,Katul, Gabriel G.,&Porporato, Amilcare.(2019).Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(11),880-+. |
MLA | Liu, Yanlan,et al."Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.11(2019):880-+. |
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