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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0054.1 |
Enhanced Climate Change Response of Wintertime North Atlantic Circulation, Cyclonic Activity, and Precipitation in a 25-km-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model | |
Baker, Alexander J.1,2; Schiemann, Reinhard1,2; Hodges, Kevin, I1,2; Demory, Marie-Estelle1,2; Mizielinski, Matthew S.3; Roberts, Malcolm J.3; Shaffrey, Len C.1,2; Strachan, Jane3; Vidale, Pier Luigi1,2 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:22页码:7763-7781 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Wintertime midlatitude cyclone activity and precipitation are projected to increase across northern Europe and decrease over southern Europe, particularly over the western Mediterranean. Greater confidence in these regional projections may be established by their replication in state-of-the-art, high-resolution global climate models that resolve synoptic-scale dynamics. We evaluated the representation of the wintertime eddy-driven and subtropical jet streams, extratropical cyclone activity, and precipitation across the North Atlantic and Europe under historical (1985-2011) and RCP8.5 sea surface temperature forcing in an ensemble of atmosphere-only HadGEM3-GA3.0 simulations, where horizontal atmospheric resolution is increased from 135 to 25 km. Under RCP8.5, increased (decreased) frequency of northern (southern) eddy-driven jet occurrences and a basinwide poleward shift in the upper-level westerly flow are simulated. Increasing atmospheric resolution significantly enhances these climate change responses. At 25-km resolution, these enhanced changes in large-scale circulation amplify increases (decreases) in extratropical cyclone track density and mean intensity across the northern (southern) Euro-Atlantic region under RCP8.5. These synoptic changes with resolution impact the overall climate change response of mean and heavy winter precipitation: wetter (drier) conditions in northern (southern) Europe are also amplified at 25-km resolution. For example, the reduction in heavy precipitation simulated over the Iberian Peninsula under RCP8.5 is similar to 15% at 135 km but similar to 30% at 25-km resolution. Conversely, a shift to more frequent high extratropical cyclone (ETC)-associated precipitation rates is simulated over Scandinavia under RCP8.5, which is enhanced at 25 km. This study provides evidence that global atmospheric resolution may be a crucial consideration in European winter climate change projections. |
英文关键词 | Europe North Atlantic Ocean Atmospheric circulation Extratropical cyclones Precipitation Storm tracks |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000490977700001 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; STORM-TRACK ; JET VARIABILITY ; RESOLUTION ; WEATHER ; PROPAGATION ; PROJECTIONS ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188122 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Baker, Alexander J.,Schiemann, Reinhard,Hodges, Kevin, I,et al. Enhanced Climate Change Response of Wintertime North Atlantic Circulation, Cyclonic Activity, and Precipitation in a 25-km-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(22):7763-7781. |
APA | Baker, Alexander J..,Schiemann, Reinhard.,Hodges, Kevin, I.,Demory, Marie-Estelle.,Mizielinski, Matthew S..,...&Vidale, Pier Luigi.(2019).Enhanced Climate Change Response of Wintertime North Atlantic Circulation, Cyclonic Activity, and Precipitation in a 25-km-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(22),7763-7781. |
MLA | Baker, Alexander J.,et al."Enhanced Climate Change Response of Wintertime North Atlantic Circulation, Cyclonic Activity, and Precipitation in a 25-km-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.22(2019):7763-7781. |
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