Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0682.1 |
Potential Predictability of North China Summer Drought | |
Zhang, Lixia1,2; Zhou, Tianjun1; Wu, Peili3; Chen, Xiaolong1 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:21页码:7247-7264 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; England |
英文摘要 | Any skillful prediction is of great benefit to North China, a region that is densely populated and greatly impacted by droughts. This paper reports potential predictability of North China summer drought 1 month ahead based on hindcasts for 1961-2005 from the "ENSEMBLES" project. Correlation scores of the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index and standardized precipitation index reach 0.49 and 0.39, respectively. The lower-level northwestern Pacific cyclonic circulation anomaly (NWPCCA) and East Asian upper-tropospheric temperature (UTT) cooling are the crucial circulations with regard to summer drought. Two sources of predictability are identified: 1) Pacific-Japan and Silk Road teleconnections forced by well-established eastern Pacific Ocean El Nino sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in summer, when the two key circulations are both well predicted because of a good prediction of enhanced equatorial central Pacific (CP) rainfall and Indian rainfall deficit, and 2) the subtropical atmosphere-ocean coupling associated with CP El Nino developing, when the skill mainly arises from the reasonable prediction of NWPCCA. In observations, the NWPCCA persists from the preceding spring to summer through a wind-evaporation-SST feedback related to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM). In predictions, the persistence of the NWPCCA is mainly forced by the enhanced convection over the subtropical central North Pacific due to the persistence of the PMM-related meridional SSTA gradient over the CP. This predicted SSTA suppresses the equatorial Pacific rainfall, contributing to low prediction skill for the East Asian UTT cooling. This study demonstrates the importance of extratropical signals from the preceding season in North China summer drought prediction. |
英文关键词 | Hydrologic cycle Drought Air-sea interaction Seasonal forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000487804400003 |
WOS关键词 | SEASONAL FOOTPRINTING MECHANISM ; GLOBAL METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; MONSOON ; CLIMATE ; ENSO ; TELECONNECTION ; PREDICTION ; ANOMALIES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188094 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Lixia,Zhou, Tianjun,Wu, Peili,et al. Potential Predictability of North China Summer Drought[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(21):7247-7264. |
APA | Zhang, Lixia,Zhou, Tianjun,Wu, Peili,&Chen, Xiaolong.(2019).Potential Predictability of North China Summer Drought.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(21),7247-7264. |
MLA | Zhang, Lixia,et al."Potential Predictability of North China Summer Drought".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.21(2019):7247-7264. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论