Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4867 |
Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes | |
van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan1; Mitchell-Larson, Eli2,3; Vecchi, Gabriel A.4,5; de Vries, Hylke1; Vautard, Robert6; Otto, Friederike2,3 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; England; USA; France |
英文摘要 | The strong two-day cold wave in the midwestern United States in January 2019 again ignited the discussion as to whether cold waves are getting more severe or not as a result of Arctic amplification due to climate change. Assessing the evolution of cold waves in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes in the observations has been difficult because the variability of cold waves is large compared to anthropogenic warming. In order to detect changes in cold spells, two complementary ways to optimise the signal-to-noise ratio are employed: multi-decadal series at individual stations, and for shorter time periods by using spatially aggregated measures. Global warming is now strong enough to make trends clear at individual stations when considering long enough (>50 yr) records of daily minimum and maximum temperature. Calculating the land area that has temperatures below the 1-in-10 year return value (defined over 1951?1980) enables us to investigate trends over a shorter time horizon. The long-term station data have strong decreases everywhere in the lowest minimum temperature. Warming trends in the lowest maximum temperature are smaller over most of the Northern Hemisphere, with dataset-dependent indications of possible negative trends in parts of the United States and Mexico. Considering the area experiencing cold waves over the last decades, the most notable feature is a sharp decline of this area since the 1980s. The natural variability is still so large that it is possible to arbitrarily select starting dates after the decline for which the trend is slightly positive in smaller regions like North America or Europe. However, these values are within uncertainties compatible with a steady decline and have differing starting dates in North America and Europe. An analysis of the entire northern midlatitudes confirms the steady decrease in severity and frequency of cold waves over the last decades in the observations. |
英文关键词 | cold outbreaks global warming northern midlatitudes Europe North America cold extremes |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493057400007 |
WOS关键词 | ARCTIC SEA-ICE ; AMPLIFICATION ; ATMOSPHERE ; WINTERS ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188001 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, R&D Weather & Climate Models, De Bilt, Netherlands; 2.Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England; 3.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England; 4.Princeton Univ, Geosci Dept, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 5.Princeton Univ, Princeton Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 6.IPSL LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan,Mitchell-Larson, Eli,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,et al. Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(11). |
APA | van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan,Mitchell-Larson, Eli,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,de Vries, Hylke,Vautard, Robert,&Otto, Friederike.(2019).Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(11). |
MLA | van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan,et al."Cold waves are getting milder in the northern midlatitudes".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.11(2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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