Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab492b |
Large changes in Great Britain's vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change | |
Ritchie, Paul D. L.1,2; Harper, Anna B.1,3; Smith, Greg S.1,4; Kahana, Ron5; Kendon, Elizabeth J.5; Lewis, Huw5; Fezzi, Carlo4,6; Halleck-Vega, Solmaria7; Boulton, Chris A.1,2; Bateman, Ian J.1,4; Lenton, Timothy M.1,2 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Italy; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | The impact of climate change on vegetation including agricultural production has been the focus of many studies. Climate change is expected to have heterogeneous effects across locations globally, and the diversity of land uses characterising Great Britain (GB) presents a unique opportunity to test methods for assessing climate change effects and impacts. GB is a relatively cool and damp country, hence, the warmer and generally drier growing season conditions projected for the future are expected to increase arable production. Here we use state-of-the-art, kilometre-scale climate change scenarios to drive a land surface model (JULES; Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) and an ECOnometric AGricultural land use model (ECO-AG). Under unmitigated climate change, by the end of the century, the growing season in GB is projected to get >5 degrees C warmer and 140 mm drier on average. Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 are predicted to counteract the generally negative impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in JULES. Given sufficient precipitation, warming favours higher value arable production over grassland agriculture, causing a predicted westward expansion of arable farming in ECO-AG. However, drying in the East and Southeast, without any CO2 fertilisation effect, is severe enough to cause a predicted reversion from arable to grassland farming. Irrigation, if implemented, could maintain this land in arable production. However, the predicted irrigation demand of similar to 200 mm (per growing season) in many locations is comparable to annual predicted runoff, potentially demanding large-scale redistribution of water between seasons and/or across the country. The strength of the CO2 fertilisation effect emerges as a crucial uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on GB vegetation, especially farming land-use decisions. |
英文关键词 | vegetation productivity GB arable production unmitigated climate change RCP8.5 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494487000001 |
WOS关键词 | ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES ; ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE ; MODEL DESCRIPTION ; IMPACT ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; PRODUCTIVITY ; RESPONSES ; PLANTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188000 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Exeter, Global Syst Inst, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England; 2.Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Laver Bldg, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England; 3.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Laver Bldg, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England; 4.Univ Exeter, Land Environm Econ & Policy Inst, Business Sch, Xfi Bldg,Rennes Dr, Exeter EX4 4PU, Devon, England; 5.Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 6.Univ Trento, Dept Econ & Management, Via Vigilio Inama 5, I-38122 Trento, Italy; 7.Wageningen Univ & Res, Leeuwenborch Bldg,Hollandseweg 1, NL-6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ritchie, Paul D. L.,Harper, Anna B.,Smith, Greg S.,et al. Large changes in Great Britain's vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(11). |
APA | Ritchie, Paul D. L..,Harper, Anna B..,Smith, Greg S..,Kahana, Ron.,Kendon, Elizabeth J..,...&Lenton, Timothy M..(2019).Large changes in Great Britain's vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(11). |
MLA | Ritchie, Paul D. L.,et al."Large changes in Great Britain's vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.11(2019). |
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