Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04942-7 |
Driving mechanisms of the variability and long-term trend of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence during the 21st century | |
de Souza, Mihael M.1; Mathis, Moritz2; Pohlmann, Thomas1 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:6453-6468 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | Over the last decade, several studies have identified a southward drift of the mean meridional position of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence (BMC). Although this trend has been ascribed to different mechanisms, the most recent study found a reduction of the Malvinas current (MC) as the main reason behind it. It is unclear, however, how this mechanism would persist in the face of global warming and under projected increased winds over the Southern Ocean, as the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) varies within different Earth System Models (ESM), ultimately impacting the MC. We ran a high-resolution (1/12 degrees) ocean model driven with results from the Max-Planck-Institute-ESM to verify how the confluence will respond to anthropogenic climate change, by downscaling results from the pre-industrial control and RCP8.5 scenarios. Our results show that the southward confluence shift is only persistent under anthropogenic forcing and is led by a reduction of the MC volume transport. This reduction of the Malvinas transport is induced by a shift of the main ACC flow closer to Antarctica's shelf, in response to a southward movement of the westerlies band, even if no long-term changes on the total ACC transport can be found. Our results corroborate previous evidence regarding the MC as the main responsible behind the observed BMC southward shift in the recent past but points toward anthropogenic climate change as the triggering mechanism, with various effects cascading from its impact on the Southern Ocean. This also has consequences for the BMC variability, whose amplitude reduces as we approach the end of the 21st century. |
英文关键词 | Climate change RCP8.5 Antarctic circumpolar current LightGBM MPI-ESM HAMSOM |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493469900073 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE ; NORTH-SEA ; CIRCULATION ; OCEAN ; THERMOCLINE ; REANALYSIS ; SIMULATION ; LEAKAGE ; REGION ; WATER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187961 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Hamburg, Inst Meereskunde, Hamburg, Germany; 2.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | de Souza, Mihael M.,Mathis, Moritz,Pohlmann, Thomas. Driving mechanisms of the variability and long-term trend of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence during the 21st century[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:6453-6468. |
APA | de Souza, Mihael M.,Mathis, Moritz,&Pohlmann, Thomas.(2019).Driving mechanisms of the variability and long-term trend of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence during the 21st century.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,6453-6468. |
MLA | de Souza, Mihael M.,et al."Driving mechanisms of the variability and long-term trend of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence during the 21st century".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):6453-6468. |
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