Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.073 |
Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model | |
Liu, Dunnan1,2; Xiao, Bowen3 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY
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ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 120页码:8-23 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Recently, the energy scarcity and environmental pollution have greatly promoted rapid development of the electric vehicles (EV) industry. In this context, we established a scenario analysis using system dynamics model to analyze the development of EV in China under policy incentives. Four scenarios were set in this paper: scenario 1 (Without any policy), scenario 2 (Only direct policy), scenario 3 (Only indirect policy), scenario 4 (Both direct & indirect policy). It is shown that the EV industry was in preliminary stage in 2010. After a period of development, in 2040, the total amount of EVs will reach 4.03, 8.61, 4.2 and 8.85 million in scenario 1-4. The results indicate that China's EV market penetration is mainly dominated by state policies, especially the financial supports. Reducing the governments' financial supports for EVs will put EV manufacturers at a cost disadvantage in the automobile markets. In addition, because of our emerging carbon market and low average carbon price, participating in carbon trading market cannot promote a rapid growth by stimulating investment passion. In all, cutting the financial supports is not a good option, because the large-scale market penetration still requires the clear and strong policy incentives. |
英文关键词 | Electric vehicle System dynamics model Financial support Emission trade scheme Scenario analysis |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440123300002 |
WOS关键词 | GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; POWER DEVELOPMENT ; CHINA ACHIEVE ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; IMPACTS ; ADOPTION ; INDUSTRIALIZATION ; TRANSFORMATION ; PERSPECTIVE |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18794 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.North China Elect Power Univ, State Key Lab Alternate Elect Power Syst Renewabl, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China; 2.North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China; 3.Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xueyuan Rd, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Dunnan,Xiao, Bowen. Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,120:8-23. |
APA | Liu, Dunnan,&Xiao, Bowen.(2018).Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model.ENERGY POLICY,120,8-23. |
MLA | Liu, Dunnan,et al."Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model".ENERGY POLICY 120(2018):8-23. |
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