GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-019-04916-9
A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal prediction of Indian Ocean basin mode
Hu, Shuai1,2; Wu, Bo1; Zhou, Tianjun1; Guo, Zhun1
2019-11-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号53页码:6089-6104
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

The full-field initialization (FI) and anomaly initialization (AI) are two currently existing initialization techniques for seasonal climate predictions. Knowledges on the skill dependence of seasonal predictions of Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) on these two initialization approaches are important but remains unknown. In this study, we try to fill in the knowledge gap by performing hindcasts with a near-term climate prediction system named IAP-DecPreS. We find that anomaly initialized hindcasts (Hindcast-A) show higher skill than full-field initialized hindcasts (Hindcast-F) in the predictions of IOBM. Initialized from November, both the types of hindcasts reasonably predict the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming during ENSO mature winter, but only the Hindcast-A successfully reproduces the persistence of the IOBM to the following summer. The differences in the hindcast skill arise in developing stage of the IOBM, during which the Hindcast-F underestimates the warming tendency in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The discrepancy is associated with both ENSO remote forcing and local air-sea interaction processes. ENSOs predicted by Hindcast-F decay faster than those in the observations and the Hindcast-A, leading to an underestimation of ENSO forcing to the Indian Ocean. In addition, both the positive downward shortwave radiative flux and latent heat flux anomalies over the southern TIO are underestimated by the Hindcast-F due to the modulations of the model climatology. These results imply that the FI scheme is unable to maintain the inherent physical processes responsible for the IOBM formation in the coupled model, although it can improve model climatology in the Indian Ocean.


英文关键词Seasonal prediction Indian Ocean basin mode Anomaly initialization Full-field initialization Coupled General Circulation Model
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000493469900052
WOS关键词AIR-SEA INTERACTION ; TEMPERATURE-VARIATIONS ; ATMOSPHERIC BRIDGE ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; SYSTEM MODEL ; CLIMATE ; ENSO ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; MECHANISMS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187940
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China;
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Hu, Shuai,Wu, Bo,Zhou, Tianjun,et al. A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal prediction of Indian Ocean basin mode[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:6089-6104.
APA Hu, Shuai,Wu, Bo,Zhou, Tianjun,&Guo, Zhun.(2019).A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal prediction of Indian Ocean basin mode.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,6089-6104.
MLA Hu, Shuai,et al."A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal prediction of Indian Ocean basin mode".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):6089-6104.
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