Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04916-9 |
A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal prediction of Indian Ocean basin mode | |
Hu, Shuai1,2; Wu, Bo1; Zhou, Tianjun1; Guo, Zhun1 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:6089-6104 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The full-field initialization (FI) and anomaly initialization (AI) are two currently existing initialization techniques for seasonal climate predictions. Knowledges on the skill dependence of seasonal predictions of Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) on these two initialization approaches are important but remains unknown. In this study, we try to fill in the knowledge gap by performing hindcasts with a near-term climate prediction system named IAP-DecPreS. We find that anomaly initialized hindcasts (Hindcast-A) show higher skill than full-field initialized hindcasts (Hindcast-F) in the predictions of IOBM. Initialized from November, both the types of hindcasts reasonably predict the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming during ENSO mature winter, but only the Hindcast-A successfully reproduces the persistence of the IOBM to the following summer. The differences in the hindcast skill arise in developing stage of the IOBM, during which the Hindcast-F underestimates the warming tendency in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The discrepancy is associated with both ENSO remote forcing and local air-sea interaction processes. ENSOs predicted by Hindcast-F decay faster than those in the observations and the Hindcast-A, leading to an underestimation of ENSO forcing to the Indian Ocean. In addition, both the positive downward shortwave radiative flux and latent heat flux anomalies over the southern TIO are underestimated by the Hindcast-F due to the modulations of the model climatology. These results imply that the FI scheme is unable to maintain the inherent physical processes responsible for the IOBM formation in the coupled model, although it can improve model climatology in the Indian Ocean. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal prediction Indian Ocean basin mode Anomaly initialization Full-field initialization Coupled General Circulation Model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493469900052 |
WOS关键词 | AIR-SEA INTERACTION ; TEMPERATURE-VARIATIONS ; ATMOSPHERIC BRIDGE ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; SYSTEM MODEL ; CLIMATE ; ENSO ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; MECHANISMS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187940 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hu, Shuai,Wu, Bo,Zhou, Tianjun,et al. A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal prediction of Indian Ocean basin mode[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:6089-6104. |
APA | Hu, Shuai,Wu, Bo,Zhou, Tianjun,&Guo, Zhun.(2019).A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal prediction of Indian Ocean basin mode.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,6089-6104. |
MLA | Hu, Shuai,et al."A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal prediction of Indian Ocean basin mode".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):6089-6104. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论