Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04874-2 |
Evaluation of CMIP5 climate model projections for surface wind speed over the Indian Ocean region | |
Mohan, Soumya; Bhaskaran, Prasad K. | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:5415-5435 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India |
英文摘要 | Global climate model (GCM) simulations of coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5 are being widely used for projections of the future climate change. The present study systematically evaluated the future simulations performed under four contrasting representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios obtained from 35 GCMs. The current wind climate (2006-2016) in GCM simulations have been assessed relative to merged altimetry derived wind speed. Skill assessment of the GCMs in representing the mean variability was investigated in detail using the Taylor's skill score and thereby converging to a suite of best-performing models was selected. Multi-model mean (MMM) corresponding to four RCP scenarios were constructed from ACCESS1.0, CanESM2, CMCC-CMS, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3 and NorESM1-M. The MMM wind climate estimated from these groups of models tend to perform better than individual models with significant improvements seen over most of the Indian Ocean (IO) region. The MMM skill score obtained from the four RCP scenarios were found to be similar, as the radiative forcing in these climate model experiments do not vary significantly for the recent decades. Significant changes in wind climate projections with reference to the historical period (1993-2005) are observed in the northern IO region, the zonal band of 30 degrees S and region south of 40 degrees S. Future projected changes in surface wind are found to be moderate for the 2026-2045 periods and the patterns in wind speed climate would be significantly changed by greenhouse gas forcing by end of the twenty-first century. The variability associated with sea level pressure, surface air temperature and sea surface temperature explains the projected changes in surface wind field under anthropogenic global warming scenario. |
英文关键词 | GCMs CMIP5 RCPs Wind climate Projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493469900016 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; WAVE CLIMATE ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; WARMING CONTRAST ; SCENARIOS ; CIRCULATION ; STABILIZATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; PERFORMANCE ; MECHANISMS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187904 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Indian Inst Technol Kharagpur, Dept Ocean Engn & Naval Architecture, Kharagpur 721302, W Bengal, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mohan, Soumya,Bhaskaran, Prasad K.. Evaluation of CMIP5 climate model projections for surface wind speed over the Indian Ocean region[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:5415-5435. |
APA | Mohan, Soumya,&Bhaskaran, Prasad K..(2019).Evaluation of CMIP5 climate model projections for surface wind speed over the Indian Ocean region.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,5415-5435. |
MLA | Mohan, Soumya,et al."Evaluation of CMIP5 climate model projections for surface wind speed over the Indian Ocean region".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):5415-5435. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论