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DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.05.022 |
Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution | |
Tapiador, Francisco J.1; Moreno, Raul1; Navarro, Andres2; Luis Sanchez, Jose2; Garcia-Ortega, Eduardo2 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 228页码:107-121 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain |
英文摘要 | Climate classifications based on temperature and precipitation measurements are increasingly being used for environmental and climate change studies. Using three classification methods (Klippen, Extended Klippen, and Holdridge) and one observational dataset for present climate (CRU, Climate Research Unit), we show that GCMs have bridged the gap that led to the emergence of RCMs thirty years ago, as GCMs can now provide global climate classifications whose accuracy and precision are comparable to those of regional outputs of the RCMs. Projections of high-resolution GCMs for future climates under the assumptions of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85) can therefore be used as a primary source for climate change and global warming studies at high resolution. This paper provides comprehensive, model-derived climate classifications for the entire planet, using RCMs and two GCMs for present and future climate-change scenarios, and discusses how well the models actually represent the climates of the world when compared with reference, ground validation data. It turns out that both GCMs and RCMs appear still limited to provide practical estimates of the world climates even for present climate conditions. The modeling of precipitation remains the Achilles' heel of models and thus of multidimensional indices, which are very sensitive to this variable. The conclusion is that model outputs at regional scale need to be taken with extreme caution without venturing into informing policies presenting potentially large societal impacts. Nonetheless, the role of models as privileged tools to advance our scientific knowledge of the Earth's system remains undisputed. |
英文关键词 | Climate classifications Earth System Models Global Climate Models Regional Climate Models |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477686700010 |
WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS ; LIFE ZONES ; EXTREMES INDEXES ; COUPLED MODEL ; UNITED-STATES ; CMIP5 ; VEGETATION ; SATELLITE ; VARIABILITY ; PARAMETERIZATIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187866 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.UCLM, Earth & Space Sci Ess Grp, Fac Environm Sci & Biochem, Inst Environm Sci ICAM, Avda Carlos III S-N, Toledo 45071, Spain; 2.Univ Leon ULE, Environm Inst, Atmospher Phys Grp GFA, Leon 24071, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tapiador, Francisco J.,Moreno, Raul,Navarro, Andres,et al. Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2019,228:107-121. |
APA | Tapiador, Francisco J.,Moreno, Raul,Navarro, Andres,Luis Sanchez, Jose,&Garcia-Ortega, Eduardo.(2019).Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,228,107-121. |
MLA | Tapiador, Francisco J.,et al."Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 228(2019):107-121. |
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