Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6343 |
Power-law behaviour of hourly precipitation intensity and dry spell duration over the United States | |
Yang, Lichao1,2; Franzke, Christian L. E.2,3; Fu, Zuntao1 | |
2019-10-31 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Germany |
英文摘要 | Precipitation is an important meteorological variable which is critical for weather risk assessment. For instance, intense but short precipitation events can lead to flash floods and landslides. Most statistical modelling studies assume that the occurrence of precipitation events is based on a Poisson process with exponentially distributed waiting times while precipitation intensities are typically described by a gamma distribution or a mixture of two exponential distributions. Here, we show by using hourly precipitation data over the United Sates that the waiting time between precipitation events is non-exponentially distributed and best described by a fractional Poisson process. A systematic model selection procedure reveals that the hourly precipitation intensities are best represented by a two-distribution model for about 90% of all stations. The two-distribution model consists of (a) a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model for bulk precipitation event sizes and (b) a power-law distribution for large and extreme events. Finally, we analyse regional climate model output to evaluate how the climate models represent the high-frequency temporal structure of U.S. precipitation. Our results reveal that these regional climate models fail to accurately reproduce the power-law behaviour of intensities and severely underestimate the long durations between events. |
英文关键词 | extreme precipitation hourly precipitation power-law distribution regional climate model waiting time distribution |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493466400001 |
WOS关键词 | DAILY RAINFALL ; MULTIFRACTAL ANALYSIS ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; MODEL ; TIME ; EXTREMES ; INTERMITTENCY ; INCREASE ; INDEXES ; REGIMES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187862 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Lab Climate & Ocean Atmosphere Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Hamburg, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil, Hamburg, Germany; 3.Univ Hamburg, Meteorol Inst, Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Lichao,Franzke, Christian L. E.,Fu, Zuntao. Power-law behaviour of hourly precipitation intensity and dry spell duration over the United States[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Yang, Lichao,Franzke, Christian L. E.,&Fu, Zuntao.(2019).Power-law behaviour of hourly precipitation intensity and dry spell duration over the United States.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Yang, Lichao,et al."Power-law behaviour of hourly precipitation intensity and dry spell duration over the United States".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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