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DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084758 |
Forecast-Oriented Assessment of Decadal Hindcast Skill for North Atlantic SST | |
Borchert, Leonard F.1,2,3,4; Duesterhus, Andre2,5; Brune, Sebastian2; Mueller, Wolfgang A.1; Baehr, Johanna2 | |
2019-10-30 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; France; Ireland |
英文摘要 | We demonstrate in this paper that conventional time-averaged decadal hindcast skill estimates can overestimate or underestimate the credibility of an individual decadal climate forecast. We show that hindcast skill in a long period can be higher or lower than skill in its subperiods. Instead of using time-averaged hindcast skill measures, we propose to use the physical state of the climate system at the beginning of the forecast to judge its credibility. We analyze hindcasts of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in an initialized prediction system based on the MPI-ESM-LR for the period 1901-2010. Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean heat transport (OHT) strength at hindcast initialization largely determines the skill of these hindcasts: We find high skill after anomalously strong or weak OHT, but low skill after average OHT. This knowledge can be used to constrain conventional hindcast skill estimates to improve the assessment of credibility for a decadal forecast. |
英文关键词 | decadal climate prediction North Atlantic ocean heat transport forecast verification |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493271500001 |
WOS关键词 | MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; CLIMATE ; PREDICTABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTIONS ; OSCILLATION ; DYNAMICS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187846 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany; 2.Univ Hamburg, Inst Oceanog, CEN, Hamburg, Germany; 3.Int Max Planck Res Sch Earth Syst Modelling, Hamburg, Germany; 4.Sorbonne Univ, LOCEAN Lab, Inst Pierre Simon Lapl, CNRS,IRD,MNHN, Paris, France; 5.Natl Univ Ireland Maynooth, ICARUS, Maynooth, Kildare, Ireland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Borchert, Leonard F.,Duesterhus, Andre,Brune, Sebastian,et al. Forecast-Oriented Assessment of Decadal Hindcast Skill for North Atlantic SST[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019. |
APA | Borchert, Leonard F.,Duesterhus, Andre,Brune, Sebastian,Mueller, Wolfgang A.,&Baehr, Johanna.(2019).Forecast-Oriented Assessment of Decadal Hindcast Skill for North Atlantic SST.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. |
MLA | Borchert, Leonard F.,et al."Forecast-Oriented Assessment of Decadal Hindcast Skill for North Atlantic SST".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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