Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-019-02569-5 |
Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula | |
Appendini, Christian M.1,2; Meza-Padilla, Rafael3; Abud-Russell, Said1; Proust, Sebastien4; Barrios, Roberto E.5; Secaira-Fajardo, Fernando6 | |
2019-10-26 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Mexico; USA |
英文摘要 | Tropical cyclones generated in the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific are a constant hazard for Mexico. Along with a possible increased hazard of tropical cyclones due to global warming, there is an inescapable increase in vulnerability and disaster risk towards tropical cyclones due to population growth and coastal infrastructure developments. In Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula has the highest landfall rates of major category hurricanes in addition to the highest rate of population growth in major tourist cities. Therefore, the assessment of landfalling tropical cyclones is of paramount importance for emergency management and planning. This paper provides an assessment of the future climate for landfalling tropical cyclones in the Yucatan Peninsula, based on synthetic tropical cyclones driven by atmospheric models (reanalysis and six different general circulation models (GCMs)) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario. The results using the ensemble mean from the GCMs show that the Yucatan Peninsula will be more susceptible to more frequent intense hurricanes and more regular events undergoing rapid intensification. We conclude that even under the uncertainty imposed by the results, it is more likely than not that the future climate will bring more extreme events to this area. Therefore, it becomes imperative to implement strategic planning based on the characterization of tropical cyclone hazards framed within the assessment of global warming effects. |
英文关键词 | Tropical cyclones Climate change Caribbean Natural hazards Public policy Risk management |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000492636700002 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY ; GULF-OF-MEXICO ; INTENSITY ; MODEL ; INTENSIFICATION ; PROJECTIONS ; SYSTEM ; CMIP3 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187791 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ingn, Lab Ingn & Proc Costeros, Puerto Abrigo S-N, Sisal 97356, Yucatan, Mexico; 2.Lab Nacl CONACYT, Lab Nacl Resiliencia Costera, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; 3.Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Programa Maestria & Doctorado Ingn, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico; 4.Programa Nac Unidas Desarrollo, Programa Pequenas Donac, Merida 97000, Yucatan, Mexico; 5.Southern Illinois Univ, Dept Anthropol, Carbondale, IL 62901 USA; 6.Nature Conservancy, Merida 97070, Yucatan, Mexico |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Appendini, Christian M.,Meza-Padilla, Rafael,Abud-Russell, Said,et al. Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019. |
APA | Appendini, Christian M.,Meza-Padilla, Rafael,Abud-Russell, Said,Proust, Sebastien,Barrios, Roberto E.,&Secaira-Fajardo, Fernando.(2019).Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula.CLIMATIC CHANGE. |
MLA | Appendini, Christian M.,et al."Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula".CLIMATIC CHANGE (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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