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DOI | 10.1002/joc.6318 |
Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel | |
Hochman, Assaf1; Kunin, Pavel2; Alpert, Pinhas2; Harpaz, Tzvi2,3; Saaroni, Hadas3; Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita4,5 | |
2019-10-21 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Israel |
英文摘要 | Global climate models provide only partial information on local-scale phenomenon, such as precipitation, primarily due to their coarse resolution. In this study, statistical downscaling algorithms, based on both weather regimes and past analogues, are operated for 18 Israeli rain gauges with an altitude ranging between -200 and similar to 1,000 m above sea level (ASL). To project seasonal precipitation over Israel and its hydrologic basins, the algorithms are applied to six Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models for the end of the 21st century, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The downscaled models can capture quite well the seasonal precipitation distribution, though with underestimation in winter and overestimation in spring. All models display a significant reduction of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century according to both scenarios. The winter reductions for the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario are found to be similar to 22 and similar to 37% according to the weather regimes and the analogues downscaling methods, respectively. Spring reductions are found to be similar to 10-20% larger than winter reductions. It is shown that the projected reduction results from a decrease in the frequency of the rain-bearing systems, as well as a decrease in the average daily precipitation intensity. The areas with the largest reductions in seasonal precipitation are found over the central mountains, the Mediterranean coastal area, and the Sea of Galilee hydrologic basins, which are the main fresh-water aquifers and reservoirs of Israel. The statistical downscaling methods applied in this study can be easily transferred to other regions where long-term data sets of observed precipitation are available. This study and others may serve as a basis for priority and policy setting toward better climate adaptation with associated uncertainties related to the methods used and nonstationary of the climate system. |
英文关键词 | analogues downscaling climate change CMIP5 predictions Eastern Mediterranean seasonal precipitation synoptic classification weather regimes |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000491804600001 |
WOS关键词 | DAILY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RAINFALL ; CMIP5 ; WINTER ; CLASSIFICATION ; SIMULATIONS ; INTENSITY ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187745 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Dept Tropospher Res, Eggenstein Leopoldshafen, Germany; 2.Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geophys, Tel Aviv, Israel; 3.Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Dept Geog & Human Environm, Tel Aviv, Israel; 4.Israel Inst Biol Res, Dept Appl Math, Environm Sci Div, Ness Ziona, Israel; 5.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Inst Earth Sci, Edmond J Safra Campus, IL-9190401 Jerusalem, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hochman, Assaf,Kunin, Pavel,Alpert, Pinhas,et al. Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Hochman, Assaf,Kunin, Pavel,Alpert, Pinhas,Harpaz, Tzvi,Saaroni, Hadas,&Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita.(2019).Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Hochman, Assaf,et al."Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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